创建自己的房产指数：每个月初随机选10套刚上市的房子（2021年1月，130万以下）

Cobra

如题。今天是1月2号，所以我选昨天刚上市的房子，加到HouseSigma的watch list里，这样就很容易知道什么时候这些房子卖出去了。

以下是今天的随机选择（4套Detached，2套Condo，2套Semi，2套Townhouse），整个1月，我会随时更新他们买卖的情况。

这里我都选了130万以下的房子，按以往观察到的规律应该很好卖。上个月选了130万以下的房子，一共就卖出去4套，跟过去至少能卖5套的结果稍微差一点，应该是季节性因素。

bokchoy888

1, 2, 3 月， 估计清蛋

Cobra

bokchoy888 发表于 2021-1-2 03:23 PM
1, 2, 3 月， 估计清蛋

新年就看违约率是否提高了。我才贴了一篇，这么重要的，房版的反而都没看见，奇怪了，呵呵。

deep

Cobra 发表于 2021-1-2 05:04 PM
新年就看违约率是否提高了。我才贴了一篇，这么重要的，房版的反而都没看见，奇怪了，呵呵。

不是没看见，是懒得理

Cobra

deep 发表于 2021-1-2 07:52 PM
不是没看见，是懒得理

其实我是从股市得到的经验，等到真正的触发事件来了，反而大家都没注意了。

deep

Cobra 发表于 2021-1-2 07:57 PM
其实我是从股市得到的经验，等到真正的触发事件来了，反而大家都没注意了。

其实我是想说CMHC自己都不会用这样的标题来吸引眼球

CMHC
Our latest release of Mortgage and Consumer Credit Trends data tables cover the third quarter of 2020. Here are some key highlights from the data:

Mortgage delinquency rates are steady
Delinquency rates are steady across Canada at 0.3%. Montreal continues to trend under the national average. Toronto and Vancouver maintain a flat rate, much lower than national average, at 0.12% and 0.16%, respectively.
Delinquency rates are stable across age cohorts with the highest delinquency rates in the 65 and over age group (0.37%), while the 25 – 34 age group — usually first time homebuyers being the lowest (0.25%).
HELOCs and Lines of Credit delinquency rates continue to be relatively flat and low at 0.17% and 0.62% respectively. The rates for credit cards decreased by 27 basis points to 1.35% and auto loans decreased 20 basis points to 1.89%.
Borrower credit scores remain high
The average credit scores of non mortgage holders (752), mortgage holders (764) and new mortgage originators (753) remained relatively unchanged and high.
The share of mortgages held by consumers with high credit scores (700+) continues to trend higher. It represents 87.48% of outstanding loans, as well as 85.76% of new mortgage loans.
Compared to the previous year, 30.81% of mortgage holders increased their credit score, while 28.49% of their non-mortgage holding counterparts saw their score move higher.  
Negative year-over-year growth in outstanding balance of all credit types
Compared to Q3 2019, non mortgage holders experienced a negative growth in all credit types, most notably in the LOC (-8.11%) and credit card (-11.42%) categories.
Similarly, mortgage holders also experienced a decline across all credit types with the largest decreased seen in the same categories of LOC (-9.31%) and credit card (-11.8%).
Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant social and economic impacts in 2020 throughout all of Canada. We have observed unprecedented declines in employment, pressures on households and increased financial stresses.
CMHC continues to monitor the economic impacts associated with the severity and duration of COVID-19, as this pandemic poses a major risk to housing and financial markets.

Cobra

deep 发表于 2021-1-2 08:54 PM
其实我是想说CMHC自己都不会用这样的标题来吸引眼球

CMHC

违约率确实在上升，我只看图表（除非图标是假的）。当然啦，现在还不到引起重视的情况。但是随着政府补贴的减少，以及陆陆续续开始要支付房贷，违约率会进一步上升，到时候是个什么情形，再看啦，这是目前熊熊唯一的希望其实。CMHC，RBC也确实预期房价要跌，他们应该有他们的理由。

Cobra

卖的太疯了，已经有8套卖出去了。只有一套是sold conditional。

Cobra

没有大变化，那栋sold conditional的最终是sold了。目前没有卖出去的两套都是房主自己不卖了，所以这个月的销售真是很疯狂。

wozaitaxiang

竟然有套condo也卖出去了

Cobra

wozaitaxiang 发表于 2021-1-28 02:37 PM
竟然有套condo也卖出去了

2 Bedroom 53万。这要在Markham，恐怕1 bedroom都够呛啊。