为什么有些人象鸵鸟一样，对事实视而不见

wwwftp

富国银行盈利，股价长了30%，中国出口增加了30%（记不太清楚了），说经济缓慢复苏，所有银行通过压力测试，奥巴马周五出来背书说经济开始复苏了，AIG说好转了。
这样明显的消息面下，还有人问银行会不会国有化， 难道自己一点功课也不做吗。

C说97年以来经营最好的一个季度，有人说是假的，即便是假的，那也是符合会计制度的“假”，Apple的CEO只不过是生个病，都给证监会查，你说他们会拿自己的生涯来造假吗，华尔街不知道是该相信你还是相信别人。
有没有人查过，如果C说97年以来经营最好的一个季度， 那么他应该分红多少，我查了一下，应该是4毛到5毛，即便现在3元的股价，这些分红就是17%，不过不知道你现在还有没有机会成为股东。
JPM说发行股份还政府的钱，这背后的潜台词是什么，这个季度肯定盈利，还得超过预期，不然谁来买这些股份，不是自取其辱吗。

所以恐怕不用到月底，下星期FAZ和FAS就可能见面了。
我只不过是个青蛙，TA什么都不懂，但好歹还知道形势比人强，现在正在火头上，想有像样的回调，只能等下一个季度的季报出来之后了。

另外，还有一点不敢沟通，就是认为房屋市场不见底，股票也不会见底，但其实股票市场总是先于经济复苏的。所以一个事实是，大底在C到1元的时候就过去了。

希望我是错的，祝大家好运。

freefly

下星期FAZ-------$8～$6

衣裳

2# freefly


百家争鸣，很好

Diver

有理。

银行们要发行股票，肯定得拉高股价先，这样才好定个好的发行价。然后肯定要维持一段时间高价位，这样才能吸引人来买。否则就卖不出去了。所以，在这样的背景下，银行们难道会马上打压股市吗？股票还没发行结束就开始暴跌的话，买家就会全被吓走了。银行们费尽心机弄了一个人造牛市，就是冲着利益来的，难道要把自己的心血毁于一旦？

富国银行盈利，股价长了30%，中国出口增加了30%（记不太清楚了），说经济缓慢复苏，所有银行通过压力测试，奥巴马周五出来背书说经济开始复苏了，AIG说好转了。
这样明显的消息面下，还有人问银行会不会国有化， 难 ...
wwwftp 发表于 2009-4-12 20:11

大泡泡

FAZ->0 Wow!

xiaoxiaozhang

老九

1# wwwftp


If you have the time to go back to, not to 1929-1930, just the last few recessions, you will find the economy did not go all the way down to bottom in few months.  The downward trend slows down from time to time and indicators go up, give people a false sense of recovery.  You should also know that indicaors also go down during bull market.  The only difference is that people generally ignore that during bull market.  You may be right, that temporary, the indicators are getting better, but the underlying economy is not getting any better.  Don't look at the stock market, look at bond market.  Bond traders are the real smart people.  We are just gamblers.

wwwftp

什么行业最赚钱，银行业啊，所以FAZ注定要成为历史，只是时间早晚而已。

freefly

什么行业最赚钱，银行业啊，所以FAZ注定要成为历史，只是时间早晚而已。
wwwftp 发表于 2009-4-12 20:41

到夏天就会看到了

ctcld

1# wwwftp


If you have the time to go back to, not to 1929-1930, just the last few recessions, you will find the economy did not go all the way down to bottom in few months.  The downward trend  ...
老九 发表于 2009-4-12 20:39

你的分析很好. 这次的金融危机和大萧条时的危机有着本质的区别--现在的危机是由于游戏规则破坏而造成的, 而不是经济危机导致的.

美国现在的国力和向全球释放压力的能力也是大萧条时不能比拟的. 只要政策得当, 良性循环起来, 事态发展会不以人的意志而转移.

老九

8# wwwftp


Based on your assumption, if there is no shorting of stocks, then there will be no FAZ.  This is too naive.  Short sellers will be on hibernation for a while, but when they strike, they only need a few days to make all the money you can make in a few years.  That said, I prefer bull market because I don't have to watch the market everyday.  Now, I have to look at all kinds of signs.

javamood

老百姓是不追高的
要想老百姓买
就得跌回来

lwmm

If you look back 2002, the bear market lasted more than two years even GDP was down 6 month. The stock market is not always 6 months before economy.
Banks can make profits by changing acount rules first. In second quater, banks may not make profits any more because no more rule changes.

wwwftp

我知道会有回调，但是向上趋势的回调能获利多少，shorter的暴利只可能在恐慌性下跌或连续下跌的情况下才可能，但现在的形式，不是说没有可能，但那时0.x%的可能，而且FAZ恐怕等不到像样的回调到来的那一天了。
报一下我自己的仓位：1.3和0.98进的C,一直持有，2.3Margin进的C持有到下周五。
我是很Naive, 我是青蛙，我不会什么高深的东西，俺等到C $5的那一天，不过我的Tax Free Saving Account里的C，准备留给儿子了。

8# wwwftp


Based on your assumption, if there is no shorting of stocks, then there will be no FAZ.  This is too naive.  Short sellers will be on hibernation for a while, but when they strike, th ...
老九 发表于 2009-4-12 21:01

GoldenSky

“其实股票市场总是先于经济复苏的”，在大熊市中，这句话是最最被人反复提起的，还有人把它精确到半年。以我看，这句话也许理论上对，但在操作上是最害人的 （我在上次熊市时因为相信这句话而吃过大亏），它总是在股市有点反弹后给人幻想，以为熊市已结束。（现在都这样了，半年后经济还会不好转？）
其实就像你现在不可能知道股市是否到底的道理一样，你也更加不可能预测到半年后的经济情况。

万物生长

谢谢公布你的持仓.

moneymaker

C说97年以来经营最好的一个季度，有人说是假的，即便是假的，那也是符合会计制度的“假”，Apple的CEO只不过是生个病，都给证监会查，你说他们会拿自己的生涯来造假吗，华尔街不知道是该相信你还是相信别人。

太有道理了，不买股票的都是看了一千零一夜里面的 Enron 故事被童话给吓傻了。
你们这些鸵鸟，难道你们不知道很久很久以前有个 Arthur Andersen 吗？

moneymaker

我知道会有回调，但是向上趋势的回调能获利多少，shorter的暴利只可能在恐慌性下跌或连续下跌的情况下才可能，但现在的形式，不是说没有可能，但那时0.x%的可能，而且FAZ恐怕等不到像样的回调到来的那一天了。
报一 ...
wwwftp 发表于 2009-4-12 21:23

等到C到50不是更好？

CoolMax

呵呵，从3.6到目前为止的事实，就是一个暴力熊市反弹。
其它的方面，都还没有成为事实！

为了支持理性讨论，我先砸块砖出来，为什么我认为目前还是熊市反弹：



如果已经进入牛市了，这个指数应该在MA的上方运行。

吴水深万丈

转个贴子算是回复原贴吧。

FACTS Vs Hopes

No doubt that stock market is a never ending imbalance of greed vs fear but facts can clear out what corner you should choose short term and long term. Let's go over some stuff:

Does anyone remember that during the 2000 dot.com stock bust, most companies didn't have any real net income but their valuation were based on "web page visits" and new visitors etc. Do you know why this was accepted and ALL THE ANALYSTS (including Cramer) were fully behind it? because back then it was often said ..."we are looking ahead at a year or so when they turn a profit" and/or "Stock prices are always a year ahead of their real cash flow". Well that cash flow never came dit it? and trillion of dollars of wealth of average folks were wiped out.

During 1930 stock market crash the stocks actually had FOUR 30% plus rebounds and at each rebound it was "looking forward and ahead 6 months" while the FUNDAMENTALS - (FACTS not BS by shorts or longs) were deteriorating. Well... it all came crashing down didn't it?

Now, for the first time ever these giant banks and investment firms wrote #338 Trillion dollars worth of Default Swap contracts and hundreds of billions in Derivates - which all of these insurance and financial papers are BACKED BY REAL ASSESTS such as commerical, industrical, agricultural, Mortgages etc. As the value of these assets came down - IN LINE withe the slowing economy and GDP - The losses on these papers crushed AIG, Lehman, Stearns, Merryl and many whole economies all across the globe. NOW LET'S DO THE MATH:

1) FED says that the unemployment will surpass 10%
2) FED says that the economy will slow down further
3) Housing prices will continue to contract once we're out of the high season.
4) Foreclosures are setting a new record every month
5) Defense spending cut backs will lay off tens of thousands of folks
6) GM and Chrysler bankruptcies will lay off tens of thousands of workers
7) Credit card default rates are at 30 year highs
8) Revolving credit are contracting at record rate
9) Commercial and business loan defaults are rising dramatically
10) Federal deficit and treasury deficit is beyond any comprehension and rising.
11) Personal savings are at all time low
12) Destruction of wealth has been the highest since the great depression.
13) New construction is at all time low along with new home sales.
14) U.S. Exports are near historical lows
15) Auto sales are 40% lower than last years record low... 40% !!!

All of the above are FACTS for 6 months from now. So if the current rally is forward looking what the hell am I, Whitney, and Oppenheimer is missing????

I have heard that retail has improved.. REALLY?? Walmart sales missed; JC penny same stores are down. Bed & Bath, Best Buy, Restaurant Groups, Blackberry, and other retailers reported better results because their competition like Circuit City etc were wiped out.

Wholesale Inventories are down... really?? they are not down because consumers are buying but because entire factory shifts have been laid off... they can't possibly produce any less.

Wells Fargo had ok earnings (we'll see the whole picture later) but they don't have anywhere near the expore of CITI and BofA to derivates and Credit Default Swaps and the above 15 FACTS (which are shared by Whitney and Openheimer) is PROOF POSITIVE FACT - NOT AN OPINION that the core value of assets that derivates and Default Swaps that are based on will come down further causing HUGE losses and write offs. YOU DON"T THINK FED KNOWS THIS?? then why they are trying to give Fed and treasury mutual power to take over multi dimensional banks/firms such as AIG and CITI? because FDIC has no jurisdiction but they know if the values drop another 7% CITI and AIG are toast and BofA's exposure to these swaps are just as lethal as others.