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发表于 2013-7-4 11:28 PM
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本帖最后由 Read0nly 于 2013-7-4 11:29 PM 编辑
看了学游老大近期的观点,用一句话总结就是:QE不是印钱,引不起通胀,中国的通胀同QE无关。
俺来说说这种立论的错误。
1. 德国魏玛共和国时期的通胀和拉美的通胀
因为货币是区域性的,印多了钞票别国不买账,所以吃不了只好自己兜着走,恶性通胀是直接的后果。
美元是区域性货币吗?
2. 关于QEs和银行准备金
看似这种解释挺合理。不过看了Wikipedia对QE的注解(见下面的英文部分),学游的解释似乎站不住脚。
QE1中联储购买的有Treasury notes,这是变相给政府的钱,同银行的准备金无关吧。
QE2中$600 billion of Treasury securities
QE3中每个月$85 Billion中的$45 billion买的是10-30year US Government treasurys (loans)。
给QE不是印钱找理由,连政府都没否认这一点,还是省省吧。
美国政府拿这些钱干啥?有太多的民众福利项目开销等待钱用,而且是经济越不好需求越大。这些钱直接或间接都流入民众手里拿来消费,消费的结果就是拿钱跑到别的国家买东西,自己当然没有通胀。要是国人来美加很自由,大家都拿钱跑到美国和加拿大买房产,国内的房价就掉下来了,美加的房价又上天了。把中国的通胀完全归咎于美国的QE当然不对,说跟QE无关除非美国对中国没有贸易赤字。
美国的通胀躲得了一时,前提就是全世界的人都还在用美元,让美国有印钱的余地。说持续的QE不会最终引发通胀,这种大话大本都不敢说。
The U.S. Federal Reserve held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its balance sheet before the recession. In late November 2008, the Fed started buying $600 billion in Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).[42] By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, MBS, and Treasury notes, and reached a peak of $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were halted as the economy had started to improve, but resumed in August 2010 when the Fed decided the economy was not growing robustly. After the halt in June holdings started falling naturally as debt matured and were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. The Fed's revised goal became to keep holdings at the $2.054 trillion level. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in 2–10-year Treasury notes a month
In November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, buying $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.[43][44] The expression "QE2" became a "ubiquitous nickname" in 2010, when used to refer to a second round of quantitative easing by central banks in the United States.[45] Retrospectively, the round of quantitative easing preceding QE2 may be called "QE1". Similarly, "QE3" refers to the third round of quantitative easing following QE2.[46][47]
A third round of quantitative easing, QE3 was announced on 13 September 2012. In an 11-to-1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion a month, open-ended, bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would likely maintain the federal funds rate near zero "at least through 2015."[48][49] According to NASDAQ.com, this is effectively a stimulus program which allows the Federal Reserve to relieve $40 billion dollars per month of commercial housing market debt risk.[50] Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity."[51] On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month.[52] |
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