学游在吗？

google

你对地产板块的弱势，及与大盘，金融的背离有什么见解？

dsp

rate up causes that?

google

dsp 发表于 2013-6-7 10:04 PM
rate up causes that?

My understanding is real estate sector drove the strong uptrend this year, if it becomes weak, why not drag Finance sector and overall market?

dividend_growth

google 发表于 2013-6-7 09:06 PM
My understanding is real estate sector drove the strong uptrend this year, if it becomes weak, why ...

REITs被炒高的原因是因为很多人追利息，既然长期利息在涨，那么REITs就不是那么吸引人了。

Homebuilders去年涨太快了，现正高位盘整。

contr

look at tlt

google

dividend_growth 发表于 2013-6-7 10:18 PM
REITs被炒高的原因是因为很多人追利息，既然长期利息在涨，那么REITs就不是那么吸引人了。

Homebuilde ...

为什么没有拖累金融及大盘呢？

这次IYR下跌幅度不小，2个星期跌过12%

wsjboy

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TLT, fina,iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond,exchng trdd fund
alpha -11.58,beta -0.30,a_vol 8569, div 2.78 -,insi 0.0 0.0,inst 0.0 0.0,
rating         Strong Sell        -        [-1-1-10 0]        -        3        0
        -        DFF        P        -        -        -        -        CTT        -        CFF
yahoo google fool finviz
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IYR, fina,iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate,exchng trdd fund
alpha 8.40,beta 1.37,a_vol 10386, div 3.57 -,insi 0.0 0.0,inst 0.0 0.0,
rating         Strong Sell        -        [0-10-1 2]        -        3        0
        CFF        -        -        DFF        DFF        -        -        P        TTT        T
yahoo google fool finviz
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

我是谁

ctcld

我个人认为是技术性的调整。

房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前，相对现在的低息环境，房贷市场和住房市场有很大的空间。
07年的Rate比现在高得多，但房贷政策也松得多，所以房市超火热。10年Tb的Rate和Rem多数情况下是负相关。
但和股市走向并无直接联系，金融泡沫时除外。

我个人倾向于资产泡沫是下一个牛市的发动机，相应IYR必将会有历史新高。当Fed要升息时，借贷市场一定已经
相当的活跃。流动性在民间泛滥。

wolfdoctor

google 发表于 2013-6-7 09:43 PM
为什么没有拖累金融及大盘呢？

这次IYR下跌幅度不小，2个星期跌过12%

mortgage rate高了，银行不是又有息差可以赚了？
还有房价涨了，原来卖CDS的不就又要肥得流油了？

Rosemary1

By John Murphy
BANKS BREAK OUT ... My Tuesday message mentioned a number of sector influences that deserve more explanation. I'll try to do that in this message. I've written recently about the impressive upturn in bank stocks, and some reasons for that upturn. Chart 1, for example, shows thePHLX Bank Index having broken above its early 2010 peak to achieve a bullish breakout. The rising green line also shows banks outperforming the S&P 500. That's a good sign for both. Upside leadership by banks is normally a good sign for the economy and the stock market. One important factor that has supported the resurgence in banks has been a strong housing sector.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 1
BANKS AND HOUSING ARE LINKED... It shouldn't come as a surprise to read that banks are closely tied to the fortunes of the housing industry. In order to buy new homes, people have to get mortgages from banks. Banks and homebuilders plunged together during the 2007-2008 housing crisis. They've both been rising together since 2009. Chart 2 compares the two. The brown bars show the PHLX Housing Index bottoming during 2009 and again during the fourth quarter of 2011 (more on that second bottom shortly). The green line plots the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) which tracks the HGX very closely. [I'm using the KRE because regional banks are more closely tied to the mortgage industry]. There again, banks bottomed during 2009 and again during the fourth quarter of 2011. Both have risen together since then. The 50-week Correlation Coefficient (below chart) shows a positive correlation of .90 between the two markets, which is very strong.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 2
PLUNGE IN YIELD CURVE STARTED HOUSING RALLY... In order to properly understand what ignited the housing rally, we have to discuss the yield curve. The yield curve shown in Chart 3 plots the difference between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury yields. Since short-term rates have been anchored near zero since 2008, yield curve swings are caused mainly by the direction of longer-term bond yields. And they have a big influence on housing. Generally speaking, a falling yield curve boosts housing. During the second half of 2011, a dramatic plunge in bond yields pushed the yield curve to the lowest level in years (down arrow). [That plunge in bond yields was caused by the start of Operation Twist when the Fed sold short-term bonds to buy longer ones]. That pushed mortgage rates to record lows and help ignite the rally in housing. Which brings us to the present situation. The recent upturn in the yield curve (yellow circle) has caused some minor profit-taking in homebuilders. Which brings us to banks. I mentioned on Tuesday that banks do better when the yield curve is rising. [That's because they can charge more for loans, while still paying near zero rates on deposits]. Chart 4 shows a more positive correlation between the yield curve and regional banks. As a result, banks do better when the yield curve in rising. It's not a concidence that the recent upside breakout in bank stocks has coincided with a 13-month high in bond yields and the yield curve. That suggests to me that banks are in better position to withstand any short-term housing pullback.

Read0nly

ctcld 发表于 2013-6-7 10:17 PM
我个人认为是技术性的调整。

房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前，相对现在的低息环境，房贷市场和住 ...

学游，你这个“房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前”的结论实在有问题。

IYR是ETF之类的东西，时间损耗不小。应该直接拿REIT和SPX做指数之间的比较才合适。
这样比的话，不用绕百分比那个圈子，直接看图，REIT超出前高的幅度比SPX大，更不用说从09年的低点上来，SPX涨了不到两倍， REIT涨了三倍多。

contr

Read0nly 发表于 2013-6-8 12:44 AM
学游，你这个“房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前”的结论实在有问题。

IYR是ETF之类的东西，时间 ...

老大详细讲讲时间损耗？

bububaba

主席, 贤内助可给老中争了光, 把O8的那位打趴了.

大彭J..

nightfly

唱歌的，调子高。

atrader

点拔一下：
宏观的：目前的REIT，就像2009年以前的两房。现在两房被迫减仓，就流到了REIT. 所以， 2009年以前的数据意义不大。
再看技术的： 要点 （1） TREASURY RATE （2） QE,FED买MBS的量和时间 （3） MBS相对于TREASURY 的息差 （4）REIT EQUITY 招募的流向。

dividend_growth

google 发表于 2013-6-7 09:43 PM
为什么没有拖累金融及大盘呢？

这次IYR下跌幅度不小，2个星期跌过12%

2004年加息周期开始时，REITs也是几周内跌了20％，银行反应不大。

银行不跌的原因有：

1. 手上房地产贷款只占总资产的10％左右；

2. 长期贷款比例低，短期贷款比例高，利率涨代表将来赢利能力提高；

3. 短期利率有Fed控制，银行几年内不需要为廉价资金来源担忧；

4. 银行有大批现金存在Fed，长期利率上涨会逐步解放这笔现金，进一步提高银行的赢利能力。

总而言之，现在美国银行的出境非常良好，资金充沛，赢利能力强大；
相比之下，欧洲银行各个摇摇欲坠，拼命紧缩，以后会被美国银行抢走很多生意。

巴菲特拼命买WFC是有很好原因的。

ctcld

Read0nly 发表于 2013-6-7 11:44 PM
学游，你这个“房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前”的结论实在有问题。

IYR是ETF之类的东西，时间 ...

老大，咱们先分清几个术语概念：


VNQ and IYR are two ETF's composed of a collection of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts)

VNQ only trades in equity REITs, while IYR also trades in mortgage REITs.

$REIT -- Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index

它们都属于不同的Group。


所有的Reit Fund都是同时参考equity REITs和mortgage REITs. 换句话说和IYR一致。

你拿08年的低点比就不对了，有点断章取义的味道。

Reits在金融危机时跌得最狠，现在只有70%的反弹。相对于现在房价还远没火爆，这和现阶段的经济现状符合。

ETF就是个可Trade 的 Portfolios。又不是 OPTIONS LEAP, 说它有时间损耗倒是第一次听说（它和杠杆ETF完全不同）

Read0nly

contr 发表于 2013-6-8 02:46 AM
老大详细讲讲时间损耗？

俺对此没有深究，只是在好几年前拿ETF同所跟踪的指数在Yahoo Finance做对比时发现这样一个现象，指数波动之后回到同一位置，ETF的价位却是在下飘，一年在0.5-1.0%的幅度。这让俺意识到，为了回避个股风险而选择只交易ETF的话，如果指数不涨，Buy and Hold还可能会是一种失败的策略。这种下飘的原因俺猜有两个，一是自身的管理成本在不断侵蚀，另一个是ETF的成份股不可能同相应的指数完全相同，只会是指数成份股简化后的一种形式，导致表现上的差异。至于后一点，你可以看到SPY的表现是优于SPX指数的。

Read0nly

ctcld 发表于 2013-6-8 02:53 PM
老大，咱们先分清几个术语概念：

谢谢学游的回复。

俺先说说对基本概念的理解。指数是衡量大市或者板块的指标。ETFs是华尔街给不想交易个股而只想根据大市或板块做交易提供的 trading vehicles，这就决定的ETFs相对应于其所跟踪的指数的从属地位。这就像MFs是拿SPX做为股市的Benchmark来做Performance对比的，而不会去拿SPY做为比较的标准。


老大的原话是： 房地产指数的表现还远没回到金融危机前。既然提及的是指数，拿IYR做比较不妥。就算俺提的REIT不合适，说说用那个指数作比较更合适？

“你拿08年的低点比就不对了，有点断章取义的味道。” 这话更没道理了。股市的低点在09年三月，不是08年。既然谈恢复，不从最低点算起从何算起？

关于ETF的时间损耗，恐怕你没做过多少实际比较吧。


看看下面是你提及是IYR所持的前5名（代号， 比重， 近期最高点相对于07/08年最高点的涨幅），其实REIT就靠这么几家撑着。

SPG    8.22%    50%
AMT   5.02%    85%
HCP    3.74%    33%
PSA    3.63%    55%
VTR   3.53%    68%