妙不可言“懒人投资法”，仅供手痒的短期投机者们用。

wsjboy

此方法不是万应灵药，仅供短期投机者使用！！！！
股市有风险，入市须谨慎！ Your Money, Your Decision!
不懂千万不要用！！！


====================================
我的妙不可言“懒人投资法”，仅供手痒的短期投机者们用。
====================================
1）找一家可以免费帮你 reinvest dividend （DRIP) 的 brokerage 公司，一定要肯定包括小于1股也免费帮你 reinvest 的的才去。 因为有很多会说他们会帮你 reinvest whole share only，forget them！！！！因为大多数 dividend 都是小于1股，甚至远小于1股。我知道 Fidelity 会这样做。IB 绝对不帮你 reinvest even whole share。因为我现在就用这两家，正好配合得天衣无缝，相得益彰。

2）凡是我要交易有dividend stock，就去Fidelity，买卖照常，像一个短期交易者。但是每次”winner“都留下10-20%的股票不卖。基本永远不看她了。让她给你挣 dividend 和 增长。

3）开始你一定很不习惯，看着这些小仓位嫌麻烦。有时dividend就几毛钱。心里恨不得马上请她们滚蛋。但是卖又不合算，因为 fidelity 交易费比较高。哈，这就是我的方法妙不可言的地方，您就有了真正的小三，小四，小五，。。。，小N，。。。您必须和她们白头到老。。。

4）过3-4年，你再看她们吧，好家伙！增长从负数到若干倍的都有，但是大多数是增长很好的。虽然每个总钱数都不太大，但是加起来的却十分可观。而且你没有再花任何的气力和成本和她们周旋，连饭都不用管。。。

5）更重要的是，您的小三小四的队伍还在几乎每天不断壮大。。。因为你是短期交易者嘛！！！！

6）如何做到绝对不看她们，且听下回分解。。。
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几个要点详细解释，在第二页，自己找一下：

I.    如何不分散您短期投机的注意力，基本不看您的小三小四队伍？
II.   税务和会计方面的一些考虑
III. 如果您改变主意了，怎样可以不白头到老了？ (How to divorce your 小三或者小四 for free?)
IV.  如果您太喜欢某位小三小四，怎样让他/她转正？(Make the stock a big long term position)
================================
补充2点：
1） 这个方法，我已经用了几年了，才敢向大家介绍
2）如果大家跟踪了我在”胡一刀club“的《《青蛙抄个股》》系列贴，就会知道，我是非常短期的 Swing Trader.
Enough said！
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方法到文章，100% 原创，今天第一次发表，哈！
我总共发表在3个股评论坛上，所有问题回答都汇总到这里，因为胡同才真正是我的家。
================================

匪兵甲

咦?这个有趣!

wsjboy

没看懂如何能赚到钱。
================================
A. 那您数学肯定有问题。do you understand exponential increase concept? 您懂不懂指数型增长？ 我去找个曲线给您看吧。。。等一下



指数曲线 和 指数曲线的特点:
不管指数多小，只要指数大于1，她增长的速度就会越来越快，请注意曲线的斜率越来越大。。。。

wsjboy

不会买着买着买到破产的公司吧？
================================
A. 当然有可能，但是有什么关系呢？大部分有分红的公司是好的，增长的是绝大多数。 而且小仓位，少数小量损失根本可以忽略不计。

wsjboy

这个办法和在fidelity里一开始就买很小仓位的股票放着有啥区别么，如果不考虑手续费成本问题的话
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A. 差别太大了，不想解释了，老是碰着数学不好的人。。。我实在不想到处上数学课。。。，已经上了一处了。。。看不懂就请不要用我的方法！数学是不可能一蹴而就的。

add an answer anyway!

A. Do you know $7.95 commission(Fidelity) is only ~0.1% of $8000 investment, but it is ~4% of $200 investment?

How many months and how hard does your $200 investment need to work to recoup that $7.95 commission?

This is almost exact the same problem with load and no-load mutual fund. Those so-called financial experts who try very hard to sell you the loaded mutual fund, and he/she will get the commission! He/she will tell you there is no difference, and the loaded fund might even do better. Please do NOT listen to them, period!!!! Thanks!

wsjboy

不适合我这个做短期的人
================================
A.  不适合就请不要用我的方法。谢谢！


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在欧洲，阁下的法子可以使吗？ by 辣油
我们加拿大这边的如何操作？ by 胡一刀
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A.  Ask, does your brokerage firm have free DRIP - Dividend Re-Investment Plan, if NOT, then it cannot be used. Also, you need to check if they charge small position fee, if they do, this method is absolute useless.

I do know some US mutual funds do charge small position fee, not on stocks as far as I know.

wsjboy

你知道老蛇为什么给我置顶加精么？他真的看懂了。。。我知道老蛇数学很好的。。。

wsjboy

If you "每次都留下10-20%的股票不卖", your  短期交易 account will go to zero unless you can earn 10-20% every time. by 诗词欣赏
================================
A. 您错了，因为你大部分短期交易都不是有分红的股票。。。


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Is 10-20% important or significant？ by someone
================================
A.  No, not at all, you can use any relative small percentage you feel comfortable with, even you can keep only 2 share to make the DRIP still working. Add more shares when you trade this stock next time.

You need to have a position to make it accept dividends, to make it grow. Brokerage firm does not keep only fraction share for you, it will be liquidated! Also you need to make sure they do not charge small position fee.

I do know some US mutual funds do charge small position fee, not on stocks as far as I know.

wsjboy

Q. You still need to pay the tax on the dividends even though your reinvest all the dividends. so the net cashflow are negative until you sold all the positions. the net effect won't be increasing exponentially, bro.  by lite1067
================================
A.
关于税务问题，我会另写。所以暂时不回答这个问题。

================================

第一，如果是普通账户，cost base会很乱吧？
第二，dividend reinvestment，短期根本没有作用，要很多年才有比较明显的效果，还不如不re-invest，改成每年一次的追加，其效果同dividend reinvestment，在数学上没有任何差异。by GnGSystem
================================
A.
您的第一个问题： 关于税务和会计问题，我会另写。所以暂时不回答这个问题。
您的第二个问题，只是基本数学问题，我已经决定的，不再争论数学问题。您如果认为我的数学错了，请用您认为的正确的数学方法。谢谢！

wsjboy

每年5%，按月分红，复利，每年才5.116%，5年是28.34%，比25%多出3.34%。要10年，才是64.7%，比没有复利的5%，多出14.7%。当然，你说100年之后，复利的优势就明显了，所以IBOND之类的就事先说好，30年之后就不付利息了。capital gain是王道，分红必须靠自己。你举一个例子说明一下可以吗？ 比如分红利率，10年如何成长？ by GnGSystem
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A. 不再回答 GnGSystem 的争论问题，大家如果认为 GnGSystem 是对的，请按 GnGSystem 的方法进行投资。

我并不在这里出售或者推销我的方法。只是提供一个我实践确实有效的方法给看得懂的短期投机者而已， 仅此而已， 而已...

lite1067

wsjboy 发表于 2013-2-4 12:00 AM 关于税务问题，我会另写。所以暂时不回答这个问题。

原来我一直以为DRIP要和发dividend的公司设立，没想到现在还有Broker DRIP啊。老大的办法不错。多谢。

Broker	DRIP Offered	Fractional Shares
E*TRADE	Yes	Yes	Restrictions apply
eOption	Yes	No	All	Mail, fax or email (with signature) a letter to eOption asking to apply dividend reinvestment to all or specific stocks
Fidelity	Yes	Yes	All	Fidelity claims they allow DRIP investment for all securities that pay dividends
Firstrade	Yes	Yes	All	Firstrade claims they allow DRIP investment for all securities that pay dividends - request DRIP via online trading platform
Interactive Brokers	No	N/A	N/A	Interactive Brokers does not offer DRIP investment
Just2Trade	Yes	Yes	Restrictions apply	To be DRIP eligible, stocks have to have 1) daily trading volume greater than 50,000 shares 2) market value greater than $5 / share 3) traded on a major exchange (NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ) and 4) DTC eligible. Request DRIP investment for all stocks or just specific ones by sending an email to Just2Trade
Merrill Edge	Yes	Yes	Most	Call Merrill Edge to request individual securities for DRIP investment
OptionsHouse	Yes	No	All	OptionsHouse claims they allow DRIP investment for all securities that pay dividends - email customer service to request DRIP
optionsXpress	Yes	Yes	Most	Call optionsXpress to activate
Schwab	Yes	Yes	Not disclosed	Contact Schwab for specific securities eligible for DRIP investment
Scottrade	No	N/A	N/A	Scottrade does not offer DRIP investment
ShareBuilder	Yes	Yes	All	From within the ShareBuilder website, select for which holdings you would like to initiate a DRIP
SogoTrade	No	N/A	N/A	SogoTrade does not offer DRIP investment
TD Ameritrade	Yes	Yes	Not disclosed	Contact TD Ameritrade for specific securities eligible for DRIP investment
TradeKing	Yes	Yes	Certain restrictions apply	Email or call TradeKing to sign up for DRIP investing. All securities with an average volume of 50,000 shares or more traded daily and that are DTC eligible may be enrolled.
Vanguard	Yes	Yes	Not disclosed	Contact Vanguard for specific securities eligible for DRIP investment
Wells Fargo Advisors	Yes	Yes	Not disclosed	Call Wells Fargo Advisors to sign up
Zecco	Yes	No	Not specified	Email Zecco to sign up for DRIP investment and to find out if specific securities are DRIP eligible

wsjboy

原来我一直以为DRIP要和发dividend的公司设立，没想到现在还有Broker DRIP啊。老大的办法不错。多谢 ...by lite1067
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A. 老大的资料很全，很强！为看得懂并准备用我的笨办法的 HTer 谢谢您！！！！

另外，zacco 已经被 tradeking 收购，tradeking 服务极差，我已经从 tradeking 那里逃出来了。 Just FYI

小建议：凡是 DRIP 有 “Restrictions” 的 brokerage firm 一概不要用，因为事情会变得很复杂，会把您的原计划打乱。。。
================================
Please remember the KISS rule:
Keep It Simple，Stupid！！！！

wsjboy

首先，如果DRIP，这么好，人家为什么要免费提供给你？ 对大客户，分红相当于发工资。
其次，复利同短期投机者半毛钱的关系都没有，数学上也只有对超长期的持股者有一些意义。文不对题啊。by GnGSystem
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A. 欢迎唱反调，加油！   不过，您到底看懂了我说的东西和目的没有？

wsjboy

老大，你是用Fidelity的吧？ 只能打电话去set up, right? by lite1067
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A. 好像有个表可以填，不是自动的。我记不清了，可以打电话问，他们会指导您怎么做。

哦，想起来了，先设一个股票，然后check一个checkbox，把它的方法适用全部股票就可以了。
注意：如果您有不止一个 account 在 fidelity （比方说，IRA， ROTH）， 要分别设。设了不通用。

wsjboy

You can set up yourself on fidelity account.  I ussally remove the reinvest service when the stock price goes up a lot and put back the service when price drop to the level i feel comfortable to buy.  Last month I removed reinvest service from PFE. I do not like to buy this stock on current price level. (by kckaka )
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A.
You should NOT do that if you follow my method，（千万千万不要！!） because you would have too much work to do with your 小三小四队伍，totally defeat the purpose of my <<妙不可言“懒人投资法”>>.

You should do practically nothing with your 小三小四队伍, except enjoying their accomplishment after a long period, at most check them out only once a year.

================================
This is NOT a suggestion to kckaka, since kckaka may have a totally different investing method.

wsjboy

请继续，很想知道你把它们装到那个香囊里？比如JNJ看着一点肥嘟嘟的很想把它们都吃肚里。但又想看看怎么鸡生蛋蛋生子。有时间多聊聊。by Newbull
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A. 对不起，我觉得您并没有从数学上真正弄懂和被说服，那最好还是不要用我的方法。这个方法是一个保证不会“立竿见影”的方法，性急的也最好不用，除非您想用这个方法磨您的性子。

wsjboy

的确是一个很妙的方法，也许只有在大熊市才会赔钱，但长期来说除非美国彻底垮了否则还是会回来，支持老大~  (by milan1126 )
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A. You are wrong! Actually, in big bear market, this method even works better, because your usually same amount of dividend will buy more shares. When the market come back, you make more money.

dividend/share price = shares you bought
$4.00/$12.00 = 0.33 shares
$4.00/$11.00 = 0.364 shares

simple math! No kidding!

GnGSystem

BAC


Dec 5, 2012        0.01 Dividend
Sep 5, 2012        0.01 Dividend
May 30, 2012        0.01 Dividend
Feb 29, 2012        0.01 Dividend
Nov 30, 2011        0.01 Dividend
Aug 31, 2011        0.01 Dividend
Jun 1, 2011        0.01 Dividend
Mar 2, 2011        0.01 Dividend
Dec 1, 2010        0.01 Dividend
Sep 1, 2010        0.01 Dividend
Jun 2, 2010        0.01 Dividend
Mar 3, 2010        0.01 Dividend
Dec 2, 2009        0.01 Dividend
Sep 2, 2009        0.01 Dividend
Jun 3, 2009        0.01 Dividend
Mar 4, 2009        0.01 Dividend
Dec 3, 2008        0.32 Dividend
Sep 3, 2008        0.64 Dividend
Jun 4, 2008        0.64 Dividend
Mar 5, 2008        0.64 Dividend
Dec 5, 2007        0.64 Dividend
Sep 5, 2007        0.64 Dividend
May 30, 2007        0.56 Dividend
Feb 28, 2007        0.56 Dividend
Nov 29, 2006        0.56 Dividend
Aug 30, 2006        0.56 Dividend
May 31, 2006        0.50 Dividend
Mar 1, 2006        0.50 Dividend
Nov 30, 2005        0.50 Dividend
Aug 31, 2005        0.50 Dividend
Jun 1, 2005        0.45 Dividend
Mar 2, 2005        0.45 Dividend
Dec 1, 2004        0.45 Dividend
Sep 1, 2004        0.45 Dividend
Aug 30, 2004        2: 1 Stock Split
Jun 2, 2004        0.40 Dividend
Mar 3, 2004        0.40 Dividend
Dec 3, 2003        0.40 Dividend
Sep 3, 2003        0.40 Dividend
Jun 4, 2003        0.32 Dividend
Mar 5, 2003        0.32 Dividend
Dec 4, 2002        0.32 Dividend
Sep 4, 2002        0.30 Dividend
Jun 5, 2002        0.30 Dividend
Feb 27, 2002        0.30 Dividend
Dec 5, 2001        0.30 Dividend
Sep 5, 2001        0.28 Dividend
May 30, 2001        0.28 Dividend
Feb 28, 2001        0.28 Dividend
Nov 29, 2000        0.28 Dividend
Aug 30, 2000        0.25 Dividend
May 31, 2000        0.25 Dividend
Mar 1, 2000        0.25 Dividend
Dec 1, 1999        0.25 Dividend
Sep 1, 1999        0.225 Dividend
Jun 2, 1999        0.225 Dividend
Mar 3, 1999        0.225 Dividend
Dec 2, 1998        0.225 Dividend
Sep 2, 1998        0.19 Dividend
Jun 3, 1998        0.19 Dividend
Mar 4, 1998        0.19 Dividend
Dec 3, 1997        0.19 Dividend
Sep 3, 1997        0.165 Dividend
Jun 4, 1997        0.165 Dividend
Mar 5, 1997        0.165 Dividend
Feb 28, 1997        2: 1 Stock Split
Dec 4, 1996        0.165 Dividend
Sep 4, 1996        0.145 Dividend

wsjboy

GnGSystem 发表于 2013-2-5 12:17 AM
BAC

BAC? WOW, What a great deliberate selection for the purpose to scare people away from dividend stocks?

Attention Everyone else:
BAC: the lowest dividend rate  (only 0.3% anually) in dow 30. You can totally ignore it, count BAC as no dividend stock!

If you are not crazy enough, you should not put BAC into your 小三小四队伍！

大家看看吧， 您就知道是怎么回事了！！！！

wsjboy

25-Year Dividend Increasing Stocks

25-Year Dividend Increasing Stocks。 The following dividend stocks are a very select group, as they have been increasing their annual dividends every year for at least the past 25 years.
http://www.hutong9.net/home.php? ... o=blog&id=40395

If these stocks happened to be on your short trading list, no matter you are losing or gain on the trade, make sure you keep 10-20% shares not to sell.