MarketWatch: Shilling says new global recession is here

shoujie

Jan. 20, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST

《美国专家：一场全球性衰退已经开始了》

By Howard Gold

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — For most economists, the main question is whether we will have a new recession. For Gary Shilling, the only question is how big

Unlike many gloom and doomsters, Shilling is a genial sort who likes cracking jokes and keeps bees as a hobby. But when it comes to economics he’s dead serious: He’s been consistently gloomier than the economic fraternity and consistently right over the past few years.

ow, he parts ways with his peers again by declaring that a new global recession already has begun in Europe and that it will touch our shores soon.

That, of course, would be a nightmare for the few bulls left on Wall Street and for President Obama’s re-election team, who are crossing their fingers and toes that Europe doesn’t implode before November.

Shilling thinks Europe fell into recession last quarter — not every country, perhaps, but enough of them to drag the continent down into the muck.

And here’s the really bad news: He thinks Europe will experience a recession as deep as ours was from 2007-2009 — enough to tip the U.S.’s relatively better economy into recession, too, during the first quarter of 2012.

And he’s looking for a hard landing in China, as consumers in contracting developed economies tighten their belts.

Shilling starts from the proposition, spelled out in his book “The Age of Deleveraging,” that the world and especially the United States had a credit bubble that lasted for decades until 2007 when the debt-ridden U.S. housing market collapsed. The bursting of that bubble was like an economic Big Bang whose effects will be felt for years as households deleverage.

Too much debt to deal with

He agrees with the research of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who studied financial crises over several centuries and found that major crises of the kind we experienced start with too much debt in the private sector.

Then, governments step in to “save” the financial system by taking on the liabilities of financial institutions and sometimes individuals. But as public debt grows too large, it curtails economic growth, Reinhart and Rogoff found, prolonging the agony and making it harder for countries to recover.

That’s exactly what’s happening in Europe now, and to some extent the United States. Note the recent downgrading by Standard & Poor’s of several European countries’ sovereign debt ratings, including France, which lost its AAA rating less than six months after the U.S. did.

European countries are finding it harder to keep Greece, Portugal and even Italy and Spain from defaulting, as their own economies struggle.

“Europe is in what I think will be a deep recession,” says Shilling, “because they will have a financial crisis and an economic crisis” just like 2008, he believes.

And the euro zone’s lack of a unified fiscal policy makes it harder for them to deal with that crisis. “They’re dithering over fiscal policy,” he says.

“It’s pretty hard for any of them to avoid” recession, he says, as the trade links that were supposed to bind them in prosperity drag them down.

shoujie

Growth estimates cut

The World Bank has just slashed its global growth forecasts and projected GDP decline of 0.3% this year in the 17-nation euro zone, a mild recession by some definitions.

Even mighty Germany had negative GDP growth in last year’s fourth quarter, so it might not be immune. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government just cut its forecast for economic growth in 2012, although it insisted the country won’t go into recession. Does the lady protest too much?

Shilling isn’t too sanguine about the United Kingdom either. The spillover from trading partner Europe and the Conservative government’s austerity program are combining to bring recession to the U.K., he says. Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan, which included three pounds of spending cuts to every pound of tax increases, cuts nearly 20% out of many ministries’ budgets, Shilling says.

“I think it’s a noble experiment, but the timing is awful,” he concludes.

And he doesn’t think the European recession will be mild. “If you look at the U.S. in 2007-09, real GDP fell 5.4%,” he says. He expects “something in that order” in the euro zone. Greece, for instance, had a GDP decline of 5%-6% last year.

Omnipotent China won’t escape, either.

GDP growth slowed to 8.9% in the fourth quarter as the Chinese government tried to squeeze inflation out of the system. GDP growth of 5%-6% “would constitute a hard landing in China,” Shilling says. There are signs Chinese exports are weakening, while consumption still hasn’t gone beyond 34% of GDP — half of what it is in the U.S.

U.S. gets off easy

And speaking of the U.S., Shilling does expect a recession here, but not as deep as what Europe will go through. “We’ve got a…decline of 2.1%..., ranking in the lower half of postwar recessions,” he says.

Should we all celebrate now? The reason we’ll get off relatively easy is because we don’t have that much exposure to Europe: Exports comprise 13% of GDP and the euro zone represents only 15% of that, so it’s only about 2% of GDP.

“That’s relatively minor,” said Shilling. “The big hit is the spillover in the financial sector.” On the surface, U.S. banks aren’t as exposed to Europe as, say, French or German banks are, but “you don’t know what the counterparty risk is” with derivatives and the like, so it’s an open question.

shoujie

Last year’s stock returns may back up Shilling’s prognostications. According to MSCI, equity markets of countries in the European Monetary Union lost 18.4% of their value in 2011 while the U.S. broke even, suggesting at worst a milder recession here.

Meanwhile Shilling returns to familiar ground with his prediction that U.S. housing prices will fall 20% more in 2012. (They’ve already lost a third of their value from their peak.)

The reason? “Foreclosures have been minimal the last two years because they were held off” by government loan-modification programs and the scandal over robo-signing. But now “foreclosures are likely to come back, and that’s the next leg down,” he says. Thanks for reminding us, Gary.

So, what should investors do? For three decades, Shilling has recommended 30-year Treasury bonds, ever since their yields topped 15% in 1981. He sold a bunch of them in 2008 when yields hit 2.5%, he bought more when yields rose to 4.5% (and great investors like Bill Gross were selling).

Now, with yields under 3%, he says, “we’re getting near the end of the bond rally of a lifetime.” During those 30 years, long U.S. Treasurys vastly outperformed stocks.

I don’t think the risk/reward trade-off on long- and intermediate-term Treasury securities looks attractive, so I’d stick with investment-grade corporate bonds and high-quality dividend-paying stocks.

Shilling isn’t always right, of course. As a permabear, his predictions do well in bad years, but he missed the 2009-2010 rally, and I think he’s being a bit too pessimistic here. Unless Europe falls apart — which I don’t expect — I think the U.S. will avoid recession until much later in the year, at least.

But ignore his warnings at your peril. His track record says that, unfortunately, attention must be paid.

shoujie

导读：MarketWatch专栏作家高德(Howard Gold)撰文介绍道，著名经济学家、《去杠杆化时代》作者席林认为，一场全球性衰退已经开始，欧洲将进入深度衰退，美国将于今年进入适度衰退，中国将遭遇硬着陆。


以下即高德的评论文章全文：

　　对于大多数经济学家而言，当前最主要的问题自然是我们是否会陷入新的衰退，可是在席林(Gary Shilling)看来，问题却只在于衰退的规模。

　　和那些阴郁的末日预言家不同，席林是个很轻松的人，喜欢开玩笑，业余时间养蜂自娱。可是，当谈到经济时，席林却是非常严肃的：过去几年当中，和大多数同行相比，多数时间当中他总是更加悲观，而且多数情况下他都更加正确。

　　现在，席林又一次明确地以自己的看法和其他同行划分了界线：他宣布，新的全球衰退已经于欧洲开始，而且很快就会越过大西洋(9.69,0.05,0.52%)，波及我们的海岸线。

　　毋庸赘言，对于华尔街上硕果仅存的牛派，对于奥巴马总统的竞选团队而言，这都是不折不扣的噩梦，尤其是后者，他们都在双手合十，祈祷欧洲11月之前不要爆出大麻烦。

　　席林相信，欧洲上个季度就已经陷入衰退了，或许并不是每个国家都衰退，但是整体而言，已经足够将整个大陆拖入泥潭了。

　　真正要命的想法在于，席林估计欧洲这一次衰退的程度将完全可以和美国2007年至2009年那一次相提并论。这样的欧洲衰退自然也足够在今年上半年将美国原本相对较好的经济状况拉下水。

　　他还估计，伴随发达国家的消费者收紧荷包，中国经济也将遭遇硬着陆。

　　在其著作《去杠杆化时代》当中，席林就已经提出了这样的理念，即这个世界，尤其是美国，出现了一个绵延几十年的信贷泡沫，直至2007年，不堪债务负担的美国房市崩溃为止。伴随众多的家庭谋求去杠杆化的进程，这样一个泡沫破灭的影响将持续很多年。

shoujie

太多债务负担

　　莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)研究了若干国家的若干金融危机，结果发现，我们所经历的大多数危机都缘起于私营部门的债务负担过重，对此席林表示同意。

　　两位研究者指出，危机发生之后，政府往往会介入，背负起金融机构，甚至有时候是个人的债务，来“挽救”金融系统。不过，公共债务膨胀到临界点以上，就会对经济增长产生抑制，使得痛苦的时间延长，也使得国家要实现复苏的困难陡增。

　　目前在欧洲所上演的，正是这样的故事，而且某种程度上说来，美国的剧本也是如此。比如说，标准普尔不久前调降了几个欧洲国家的主权债务评级，其中尤其引人注目的是法国失去了AAA的评级，在六个月后步了美国的后尘。

　　欧洲国家都发现，在他们自己的经济尚且步履蹒跚的时候，要确保希腊、葡萄牙，甚至还有意大利和西班牙不至于违约，正变得愈来愈困难。

　　“我想，欧洲正处于深度衰退当中。”席林解释说，“因为他们正同时陷入金融危机和经济危机”，就像2008年的美国一样。

　　欧元区缺乏统一的财政政策，这就使得他们面对危机时更加难以措手。他强调：“他们的经济政策整体而言看上去惊慌失措。”

　　彼此之间密切的贸易联系曾经使得他们共享繁荣，但是现在同样也使得任何一个国家想要摆脱群体性衰退变得极端困难。

shoujie

增长预期调降

　　不久前，世界银行已经将全球经济增长预期予以调降，而且估计十七国欧元区的国内生产总值今年将下滑0.3%——一定程度上说来可以解读为温和的衰退。

　　即便是强大的德国，在去年的第四季度也遭遇了国内生产总值的负增长，因此他们恐怕也难以免疫。默克尔政府不久前同样调降了自己的2012年经济增长预期，但是还坚称德国不会陷入衰退。这位女士是否过于自负了？

　　对于英国的情况，席林也并不怎么乐观。他指出，欧洲贸易伙伴的株连和保守党政府的节俭计划联合作用，正在将这个国家推向衰退。卡梅隆首相的计划每增加一英镑税收的同时还有三英镑的开支削减，整体而言会让许多部的预算都缩水近20%。

　　席林的结论是：“我想，这是个值得敬佩的实验，但是选择的时间实在是糟糕透顶。”

　　在他看来，欧洲的衰退恐怕绝对不会温和。“我们回望美国的2007年到2009年，可以看到真实国内生产总值下滑了5.4%”，他估计，在欧元区也会发生“同等重量级”的事情。比如说，希腊的国内生产总值去年就缩水了5%到6%。

　　即便是全能的中国，这一次也跑不掉了。

　　伴随中国政府试图压制通货膨胀，中国国内生产总值增长速度在第四季度降低到了8.9%。席林指出，经济增长速度降低到5%至6%“就意味着中国的硬着陆”。现在有迹象显示中国出口正在趋向疲软，而消费开支至今还没有达到国内生产总值的34%，即不及美国的一半。

　　美国相对轻松

　　至于美国，席林预计同样会出现衰退，只是没有欧洲那么严重罢了。他表示：“我们将遇到……2.1%的下滑……在战后衰退当中属于较轻的那一半。”

　　听起来似乎让人松了一口气。美国的处境之所以会相对轻松，正因为美国与欧洲的瓜葛并不是特别深：出口在美国国内生产总值当中的比重为13%，而总出口当中，欧元区的比重又只有15%，这就意味着对欧元区出口对于美国经济整体而言，其实只有2%的影响。

　　“这相对而言是较小的。”席林评论道，“将受到较大连累的还是金融领域。”表面上看来，美国银行并没有像法国或者德国银行那样深深卷入欧债危机，但是考虑到各种衍生产品之类的存在，“你还是无法确切估计风险”。

　　去年的股市或许也为席林的推测提供了支持。摩根士丹利提供的数据显示，欧洲货币联盟国家市场整体在2011年当中亏损18.4%，而美国则是不赔不赚，意味着这里至多只是温和衰退而已。

　　在房市的预期上，席林倒是和大多数人看法一致，预计美国房价尽管较之峰值已经下跌三分之一，但是2012年还将再跌20%。

　　原因是，由于政府的贷款负担减轻计划和机器人(18.780,0.78,4.33%)签名丑闻的影响，抵押赎回权丧失的情况在过去两年间得到了一定程度的遏制，但是现在，这一潮流将再度回头，“是另外一只靴子落地的时候了”。

　　那么，投资者该采取怎样的行动呢？自三十年期国债收益率1981年在15%以上见顶之后，席林一直在推荐它。在三十年期国债收益率于2008年跌至2.5%时，他卖出了一部分，但是在其收益率涨回到4.5%时，席林买进了更多(同时，葛罗斯(Bill Gross)等著名投资人在卖出)。

　　目前，三十年期国债的收益率在3%以下，席林表示：“我们一生所仅见的债券涨势已经接近尾声了。”在过去三十年当中，美国国债的整体表现要好于股票。

　　我个人并不认为长期和中期国债的风险回报情况具有多少吸引力，因此我还是坚持持有投资等级企业债券和高品质派息股票。

　　当然，席林并不总是正确的。作为一个超级熊派，他的预测在多数时候是正确的，他的策略在多数时候是行之有效的，但是他也错过了2009年至2010年的涨势，现在我也觉得他有点过分悲观了。除非欧元区真的分崩离析——我认为这可能性不大——我觉得美国至少到下半年的中期和晚期都可以避开衰退。

　　不过，对他的警告置若罔闻总是危险的，因为他的预测记录摆在那里，告诉我们必须提起足够注意。

ctcld

你就天天在熊井里炒冷饭吧你。。。

ctcld

shoujie  嘿嘿。。。为了平等，你也可以炒。。。

你在井里我在山上，怎么平等法？

shoujie

ctcld 发表于 2012-1-24 16:08
shoujie  嘿嘿。。。为了平等，你也可以炒。。。

你在井里我在山上，怎么平等法？

从你的头像看，你是在水里。不过嘴巴是大的吓人。。。

shoujie

wolfdoctor

shoujie 发表于 2012-1-24 16:02
增长预期调降

　　不久前，世界银行已经将全球经济增长预期予以调降，而且估计十七国欧元区的国内生产总 ...

说实话，你这有点象是在给自己壮胆。09年3月到去年，这样唱衰的文章你同样可以找出不少。现在每天都V正是那段时间每个上涨波的中间一段的pattern。希望你最近以来一直都有hedge保护。

ctcld

shoujie 发表于 2012-1-24 15:13
从你的头像看，你是在水里。不过嘴巴是大的吓人。。。

总有一天那华尔街的鲸盆大口会把你给吞了。。。

我很想等Gary Shilling的预言破产。
20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling

chickencoop

again the worst case for bears is slow grinding up. It looks truer everyday...