09/27/2011 Market Outlook (Filled Black Bar)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:01 PM

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND BUT MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

今天的Trading Signals里已经提了，不能排除the high was in的可能性，当然光凭一根黑棒棒和一根空心红棒棒就说the high was in了，是不够严谨的，所以需要看明天。明天如果又是黑棒棒或者空心红棒棒或者Doji的话，就要小心了，连着两根反转棒的准确性要高很多。下面的图应该很清楚为什么我说可能the high was in了，特别是VIX and SPX的Divergence非常微妙。

除了反转棒的证据以外，昨天大涨2%，今天一度大涨3%，但是Money Flows却负的很厉害，可能也说明点问题。当然我不是说，这足以证明马上要跌，我只是说要注意。

可能有同学会问，今天的反弹超过了前两次（c > a and c > b），是不是表示转势了？我只能说这是迈出了万里长征的第一步，下面还要证明熊熊变弱了才行，所以也是走着瞧吧。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	4 of 5 SELL	3 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	DOWN	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	DOWN
USO & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

silicon_beaver · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:03 PM

snowball2009 · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:03 PM

Safa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tortose · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:03 PM

silicon_beaver · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:03 PM

根号3 · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:03 PM

snowball2009 · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:04 PM

rosyrosy · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:04 PM

一环顶！

hillcrest · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:06 PM

thx!

tortose · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:06 PM

wxw · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:08 PM

atrader · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:08 PM

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:09 PM

thanks.

Jeff · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:10 PM

Thanks

hunting · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:10 PM

try_again · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:10 PM

Thanks

sunnysunny · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:10 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:11 PM

多谢

oda · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:13 PM

silkway · 发表于 2011-9-27 07:14 PM

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[技术分析] 09/27/2011 Market Outlook (Filled Black Bar)

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