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SHORT-TERM: SIZEABLE REBOUND WITHIN 3 DAYS BUT SPX LOWER CLOSE AHEAD ALMOST GUARANTEED
两个结论：
- 最快明天反弹并且收绿，最迟3个交易日内会有比较可观的反弹。
- 还没有跌完，多半08/09的low会破。
下面的图是我对今后走势的猜测，应该有助于理解上面的两个结论。
下面的图解释了为什么最迟3个交易日内会有比较可观的反弹。至于为什么最快明天会有反弹并且收绿，参见今天的Trading Signals，有88%的机会。
为什么还没有跌完？
- NYADV too low，基本guarantee SPX会close below today’s close。另外，别忘了，SPX还欠着一个lower close (close below 08/10 close)。以下面这幅图过去的成功率，我觉得可能性很小，两个lower close的预言都失败，所以至少SPX会close below today’s close。
- NYMO要想形成visible positive divergence，SPX lower low是必要条件，这就意味着08/09的low会破。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000
See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
- August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 08/18 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-8-18 07:37 PM
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发表于 2011-8-18 07:37 PM
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