08/15/2011 Market Outlook (May see pullback but the rebound isn't over yet)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

两个结论：

1. 明天可能会收红。
2. 反弹还没有结束。

关于明天可能收红的理由在今天的Trading Signals里已经给了，可能不够有说服力，不过下面的NYADV MA(5) too high的理由应该比较充分了，因为没有例外，第二天都收红了。之所以没有在今天的Trading Signals里提这个图，是因为这个图同时也是说反弹还没有结束。

 

下面的图是另一个反弹还没有结束的理由，还从来没有过Major Accumulation Day是exactly top的情况。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
2. August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook, 08/09 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 3 SELL Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term UP 5 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support! IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

marquis

ByStander

怎么一会儿就变成板凳了

当时惘然

ByStander

“还从来没有过Major Accumulation Day是exactly top的情况。”

那以后就天天MAD。

jcs

donalan

谢谢

美眉妹

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cc2265

匪兵甲

thanks, BanZhang!

IMeMyself

浪淘金

nanosensor

Ding

balto

如果捣乱分析的有理，那这几天的MAD就是交割put的MM在回补仓位。。。

胡同儿串子

ahdou

dodofish

Bencat

soulvirus

Forevergreen