Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3

snowrider

08/13/2011

Comments are welcome!

student

you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?

snowrider

student 发表于 2011-8-13 21:17
you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?

The attached is the monthly chart as of 07/31/2011:

snowrider

Note that in the monthly chart, the purple line is not valid any longer.  Now the market is following the wave count of grey line.

snowrider

The big picture is:
[[D]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[E]].[A].C.
An alternative count is:
[[V]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[V]].[D].C.

大牛Steve

当[[D]].[C].E 完成后，相对于08年的下跌5浪的整个反弹浪，就此结束。
接下来，应当是新一轮驱动浪的的开始，也就是说，一组新的下跌5浪开始。

第一张图标志的是A-B-C，后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现。
那么，比较一下下面的图，两者在09年3月到迄今的范围里，应没有什么分别吧？

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-8-14 00:23
当[[D]].[C].E 完成后，相对于08年的下跌5浪的整个反弹浪，就此结束。
接下来，应当是新一轮驱动浪的的开始 ...

大牛Steve - Thanks for commenting.  There are inifintely many possible wave counts for a given chart.  Here is my count for SP's big picture:

Basically, I treat the 2008-09's big collapse as a [[C]] inside a flat correction starting from 2003:
March-2000 - started this huge flat
December-2002 - [[A]] completed
December-2007 - [[B]] completed
March-2009 - [[C]] completed
OK ... from then there are two possibilities:
1. June-2011 - [[D]] completed (which means a huge [[E]] is on the way), or
2. June-2011 - [[V]].[C] completed (which means an ending [[V]] is on the way), and now it's just close to the end of [[V]].[D]

I don't consider the [[D]].[C].E is a "整个反弹浪" of "08年的下跌5浪" because it has gone too high.

About "第一张图标志的是A-B-C，后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现", if my count is correct then the answer is NO because it will be the ending of [A] inside a huge [[E]].

About "那么，比较一下下面的图，两者在08年迄今的范围里，应没有什么分别吧？", they are very similar.  One of the major differences is that I label 3-segment waves or unhealty impulsive waves by using abcde instead of 12345.

I am going to post my label convention next.

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q3 (Jul - Sep), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY.

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

大牛Steve

先顶着，需要花时间按你的数浪一个个添加到图表上去，再研究。
能幸会snowrider兄和享用你所提供的研究结果，是特大的收获。

shoujie

俺先顶着。有空再看

大牛Steve

如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61.8%处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]。至此，一轮新牛市再次展开。

我的问题是：从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪常态是驱动浪型态，即5浪型态，这是一个重要条件。所以后面会跟出反弹浪D和驱动浪C。
而接下来的调整浪[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]才会是A-B-C型态。

从第一张图的[[E]].[A].A.到[[E]].[A].C.的形态上看，特别是A与C之间角度的过分差异，是驱动浪的1-2-3（后面还有-4-5）型态。

大牛Steve

还有，可以解释一下为什么[[[IV]]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[[IV]]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？
再次谢谢snowrider兄的大作。

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-8-14 09:04
如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[]].[[E]].，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61. ...

大牛 - I think that my posts have confused you.  When I posted the monthly chart, it was on 07/30/2011.  The market has not crashed yet at that time.  The count on the monthly chart has been changed a bit because of the descending momentum.  The daily chart post as of this weekend is the latest count, but I did not update the monthly chart though.  I'll update the long term count in the next post.

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-8-14 09:04
如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[]].[[E]].，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61. ...

如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61.8%处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]。至此，一轮新牛市再次展开。

Yes, [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C is about to end (but not done yet).  Yes, "接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]".  Yes, "最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的 ... %处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]".  The only thing is that the "..." would not necessarily be "61.8%".  It will eventually depend on how the market acts.  I am looking at anywhere from 950 to 830 ... where it will be an ideal place to do all-in.

After I read your post again this time, I think that I did not confuse you.

snowrider

Anyone can tell me how I can sort to make the latest post to the top (so that I don't need to scroll down to find the latest one)???

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-8-14 09:04
如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[]].[[E]].，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61. ...

我的问题是：从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪常态是驱动浪型态，即5浪型态，这是一个重要条件。所以后面会跟出反弹浪D和驱动浪C。
而接下来的调整浪[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]才会是A-B-C型态。
...

You know that an abc could be 335 or 535.  "从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪" dose not need to be a "驱动浪型态，即5浪型态" to be a "条件" of forming a segment of [[D]].[C].E.

...
从第一张图的[[E]].[A].A.到[[E]].[A].C.的形态上看，特别是A与C之间角度的过分差异，是驱动浪的1-2-3（后面还有-4-5）型态。

I agree with that.  I have seen some EW technicians categorize that as I-II-III instead of A-B-C.  The reason that I tentatively label them as A-B-C is based on the detail wave movement inside each segment.  It did not seem to me some 12345 inside A.  Please see attachments:

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-8-14 09:28
还有，可以解释一下为什么[[]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？
...

... 为什么[[[IV]]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[[IV]]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？...

Normally, an E wave is a simple wave segment to make a quick final kickout small fishes and then breakout the triangle.  However, in our case, we are watch a multi-year (more than a decade) super big formation.  IMHO, a complex type is more possible.  If we want it to be a simple type, then it will be a real crash like 1987.

hunting

谢谢老大，学习数浪，，，

李隆基

vanbj