历史上八月暴跌后的走势

MLat42

Since 1900 it's been rare to see a major sell off in the month of August.  In fact there have only been "7" occurrences in which the Dow has lost 10% or more calculated from the July close to the August low as shown in the table below.  



Worst % Drops in August since 1900
(July close to August low)

1998         -15.4
1990         -15.3
1974         -14.0
2011         -12.7
1907         -12.2
1966         -10.4
1939         -10.3

Here are some monthly charts of the previous "6" occurrences with the letter "A" denoting the month of August.  In August of 1907 the Dow closed the month with an 8.4% loss.  It continued lower for another 3 months before bottoming in November (point B) with an additional loss of -27%.  

The next occurrence was in August of 1939 as the Dow closed down -7.7%.  However in this case it only dropped another 5% from August's closing value as it made a low in early September (point B) which was followed by a solid close by the end of the month (points B to C).   


Meanwhile the next case was in in August of 1966 in which the Dow close down 7.7% for the month.  In this case the Dow made a low in October (point B) and lost an additional -6.7%.

The next occurrence was in August of 1974 as the Dow lost 10.4% for the month.  In this case the Dow was very volatile as it didn't make a low until November (point B) with an additional loss of -16%.


Meanwhile the next case was in August of 1990 in which the Dow lost 4.4% for the month.  In this case the made a low October (point B) in which it lost an additional -10%.


The next occurrence was in August of 1998 in which the Dow closed lower by -15%.  In this case the Dow only dropped another -2% while making a slightly lower low in September (point B) and then rallied into the end of the year.


To sum things up based on past events the Dow should make at least a slightly lower low in the Fall with the 38.2% Retracement Level (black line) just above 10400 a minimum target.  The worst case scenario would probably be a retest of the July 2010 low near 9600 which is close to the 50% Retracement Level (green line).  A drop back to the 9600 level would roughly be a 9% drop from the current August low of 10604.   Finally we could be seeing a 5 Wave affair from the May high as the bounce this week would be Wave 4 of 5 with the target for the final 5th Wave somewhere between 10400 and 10000.  

风清扬

tracy

thx

davidino

VERY INFORMATIVE!!!  IT'S VERY MUCH APPRECIATED.

Ahaha

Ding!

silicon_beaver

MLat42 发表于 2011-8-13 12:31
Since 1900 it's been rare to see a major sell off in the month of August.  In fact there have only b ...

"8/31/2011         -12.7 (should be 14.7%)

What' s happening? It's a forecast? Today is just 08/13/2011.

silicon_beaver

Good post, very useful historical data.

purety

ding

nanosensor

Thanks

jcw

wnd4

thanks

wyjhyd

sandera

hutong123

IT'S VERY MUCH APPRECIATED

葡萄柚

谢谢分享！  

greenback

triestino

thanks.

greatinter

Good stats.

coexist

vancouverea

nice~