08/03/2011 Market Outlook (Tradable Bottom?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: A TRADABLE BOTTOM COULD BE IN

下面的图是根据我目前搜集到的证据，对未来走势的wild-est-est-est-est-est的猜测。我知道，肯定有银会说，这个Head and Shoulders Top，太明显了，所以肯定不工作。没说的，咱们走着瞧吧。Head and Shoulders Top统计上有55%的机会meet text book target。自March 2009以来共有两次Head and Shoulders Top fail了，这个第三次会不会不一样？怎么说也有55%的机会，三次都fail，就是100%的fail啊，那以后干脆忘了这个所谓的Head and Shoulders Top吧。

 

下面解释为什么，只想看结论，不在乎理由的，就不必往下看了。

为什么a tradable bottom was in了？

四个理由：

• Hammer, Volume surge and successful testing of the March lows，SPX今天的棒棒看着这很像是bottom了。

 

• 0.3.1 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, CPC, CPCE, CPCI都很高了，因此可能bottom了。

 

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, ROC(30) < –9，因此可能bottom了。这个图，虽然最近错了一次，但是如果你看看过去的历史，8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008的话，应该可信度还是挺高的。

 

• VIX leads。

 

为什么说反弹的目标是MA(200)以上，时间可以到8月9号？

• 8月9号是FOMC，一般到 FOMC那天都会涨的。
• 下面的统计，基本上可以证明，MA(200)不会一下子就破了，这么重要的地方，牛牛熊熊怎么都要拉锯一下，所以应该反弹会回到MA(200)以上。

 

最后，为什么反弹以后还会掉下来？

关于这一点，已经在08/01 Market Outlook和08/02 Market Outlook里讲足了理由了。最最重要的有两个：

• SPX down 5 or more days，会反弹，然后至少revisit the previous low，多半是lower low。关于这一点的证明，图太多了，我就不再一一贴出来了，有兴趣的可以看我的public chart list, from 8.2.4a SPX Consecutive 5 or More Down Days 2000 – 2001 to 8.2.4e SPX Consecutive 5 or More Down Days 2010 – 2011。

• NYMO visible positive divergence still missing。什么叫visible positive divergence？就是说用发大镜才能看到的divergence不算，下面的图，你肉眼能看出来divergence吗？NND，我就不信你两只眼睛比我眼镜蛇的眼睛还厉害！

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN DOWNTREND, COULD BE A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMED, TARGETING SEP 2010 LOWS

See short-term session above for the chart, in wait and see mode as the Head and Shoulders Top breakdown not confirmed yet.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/03 Market Outlook: A tradable bottom might be in, targeting MA(200) above.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/01 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell. Also so 08/02 Market Outlook for more evidences.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful. IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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donalan

qianshui

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小财虫

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1st page.

cc2265

hutong66

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谢谢

xiaochong

眼镜蛇是高度近视哈，班长

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everest001

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