08/02/2011 Market Outlook (Exhaustion Bar?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

两个结论：

1. 最快明天反弹。
2. 反弹，如果有的话，是卖的机会。

下面是最快明天反弹的理由：

• NYMO oversold，这个不是一般的oversold，是extremely oversold。

 

• 5天内有2个Major Distribution Day，因此可能会有反弹，但是这个也是为什么说，反弹，如果有的话，是卖的机会，的理由。

 

• SPX今天这根棒棒，看着像是exhaustion bar，所以应该是almost there了。当然，明天继续小跌，或者来个更大的棒棒更大的量（说明more exhaustion）也是可能的，所以这个理由不说明明天就反弹，只是说有可能差不多了。

 

为什么说，反弹，如果有的话，是卖的机会？

• 还是惯性定律，加速向前的车，在没有减速前是不可能突然倒退的。NYMO新低，表示向下还在加速，因此还缺一个减速的特征，就是NYMO positive divergence。

 

• 前面提到了5天内有2个Major Distribution Day，短期可能有反弹，但是中期，多半没有跌完。
• 08/01 Market Outlook里讲了一大堆理由，特别是SPX连跌5天以上的理由，今天因为还是没有反弹，因此应该继续有效。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN DOWNTREND, SPX TARGET MARCH LOWS AT 1249

See 08/01 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook. Failed!
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead. Failed!

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead. Also 2 more evidences in 07/25 Market Outlook.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.
• 08/01 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell. Also so 08/02 Market Outlook for more evidences.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 4 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful. IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

c3456

c3456

c3456

layschips

新低手

i wish: open lower in the morning and then push-up higher

c3456

c3456

marquis

c3456

123456

wofo

stocksea

Im168

nanosensor

Thanks

michaelzhang

layschips

今天CPCE竟然还跌了，真是没人知道害怕了。。。

jcs

Billyboy

源济

美眉妹