07/21/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:51 PM

SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD, NOT IDEA WHEN THOUGH

该说的今天的Trading Signals里都说了，暂时还是认为短期会有pullback，07/20 Market Outlook里那么多证据，全失效的可能性不大。不过目前chart pattern还看不出来要pullback的样子，所以还不知道什么时候开始pullback。下面的图是最快能实现的pullback的pattern了，当然明天又是高开高走的话，就什么都不用谈了。顺便说，连续两次高开，中间掉下来，然后又大涨，明天如果又是大高开，中间掉下来的话，多半不会又涨起来了，因为第三次会不一样，we’ll see。

下面的图是说两天内会有pullback，算是给07/20 Market Outlook的分析又添了一个证据吧。

Non-Stop model的sell signal看起来是whipsaw，因此明天应该cover short then take long，同样可以等几天，以防是whipsaw。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate	4 of 5 BUY	5 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term	UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly	UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

darren168 · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:52 PM

本帖最后由 darren168 于 2011-7-21 19:54 编辑

first
Thanks

wofo · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:53 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:53 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:55 PM

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:56 PM

coexist · 发表于 2011-7-21 06:59 PM

sooners · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:03 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

oldfox · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:04 PM

ahdou · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:10 PM

Forevergreen · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:14 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:15 PM

On page one

葡萄柚 · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:20 PM

感觉现在市场很强。不过我还是准备小心为上。

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:28 PM

lilitulip · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:30 PM

thanks a lot

RedCedar · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:35 PM

Thanks Cobra !

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:41 PM

wnd4 · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:42 PM

thanks

jennifer · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:43 PM

开小差 · 发表于 2011-7-21 07:45 PM

thx, ding

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[技术分析] 07/21/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)

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