07/08/2011 Market Outlook (Could see some weakness the next week)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS THE NEXT WEEK

两点说明：

1. 下周多半会比较软，至少不会大涨特涨。
2. 维持07/07 Market Outlook的说法，expect higher high ahead，强调这一条的意思是说，虽然下周可能会比较软，但大盘多半不是一下子就掉下去的，先去测试07/07 highs的可能性很大。

说一下下周可能会比较软的证据：

• 07/08 Trading Signals里已经提到了，red Non Farm Payroll day多半意味着reversal，为清楚起见，下面的图只列出了自2009年牛市以来所有red NFP day的情况，可以看到10次里只有1次例外，因此可信度还是很高的。

 

• 周五低开高走，感觉非常牛，不过，这样在高点形成的空心红棒棒，多半意味着top，此外ChiOsc也比较high了。

 

• 由于地球重力的影响，MACD Hist太高了是不行的，下面的图至少是说下周大涨特涨的几率不大。

 

• 下面的图来自Schaeffer，看起来July Expiration Week比较bearish。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.
• 07/08 Market Outlook: Could see some weakness the next week.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 *NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP *NAADV MA(10) and ChiOsc too high. IWM & Weekly UP *ChiOsc too high. SSEC & Weekly *UP   EEM & Weekly UP XIU & Weekly DOWN *The last 4 bars don’t look good. DAX & Weekly UP *The last 4 bars don’t look good. TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly *UP *Symmetrical Triangle? USO & Weekly *UP *Bearish Abandoned Baby? XLE & Weekly UP *Evening Star? ChiOsc too high. XLF & Weekly UP IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP *ChiOsc too high.

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

源济

stocksea

源济

Jinan90

lilitulip

azzz

silkway

wolfdoctor

put比call多太多了

Thirty-cents

Thanks

福多多

Cobra

wolfdoctor 发表于 2011-7-9 17:44
put比call多太多了

我不管这个，除非地球重力不起作用了。按你们max pain的说法，所谓的MM是万能的，价格想到哪就到哪，那还用得着技术分析吗？还用搞啥次贷吗？还需要QE2吗？反正可以随心所欲的涨和跌。

wolfdoctor

Cobra 发表于 2011-7-9 18:02
我不管这个，除非地球重力不起作用了。按你们max pain的说法，所谓的MM是万能的，价格想到哪就到哪，那还 ...

我是想说要是没有很surprise的事情，应该不会大跌，和你的中央精神不冲突哈

balto

jy1029

Thx

cartier

Elephant

盼着暴跌。

n748

暴跌, 暴跌?
Impossible!!!!

c3456

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子