06/28/2011 Market Outlook (So far goes as planned)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:27 PM

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK WITHIN 2 DAYS

到现为止大盘的走法和我06/24 Market Outlook的预计完全吻合，见下图，甚至那天画的线我都没有改动。明天可能是个分歧点：

直接掉下去就是Symmetrical Triangle case。
小涨至higher high，就是Bear Flag case。
像今天一样大涨特涨的话，那么没说的，跟熊熊说白白吧，天要亡你，咱上有老下有小的，就不宁死不屈了哈。

目前看，小涨或直接掉下去的可能性要大一点点，理由是有很多图，如果中期向下的趋势还没有改变的话，明天就该回调了。而明天不回调反而大涨特涨的话，那么就意味着change in character，也因此我前面说，如果大涨特涨的话，就要跟熊熊说白白了。下面的图是其中准确率最高的一幅，NYADV太高了，明天既使不red的话，大涨的几率也不大。顺便说，这个也是我在今天的Trading Signals里讲，明天如果还涨，short at close的成功率可能高一些的理由，不要忘了，according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.

米纸看着不熊，向上的可能性比较大。之所以今天提这个，我是觉得看起来希腊通过austerity vote可能会被解释为对米纸利好，因此股市有sell on news的可能。此外，这两天黄金的下跌也预示着米纸可能要走强。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	DOWN
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP	Double Top, target $142.52.
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

michaelzhang · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:29 PM

skipjack · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:29 PM

michaelzhang · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:29 PM

本帖最后由 michaelzhang 于 2011-6-28 20:30 编辑

wxw · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:30 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:35 PM

6th-Sense · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:37 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:38 PM

slowstep · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:40 PM

tianlong · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:43 PM

面瓜 · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:43 PM

看来明天还是得卖啊

NZX · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:44 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:44 PM

Thanks

sooners · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:47 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:49 PM

like2swing · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:52 PM

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:55 PM

谢谢，辛苦啦。

everest001 · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:55 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:56 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-6-28 07:56 PM

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[技术分析] 06/28/2011 Market Outlook (So far goes as planned)

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