06/27/2011 Market Outlook (Will the 3rd time be the charm?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: HAVE A LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT TODAY’S RALLY

今天的上涨是否意味着the low was in了，还不好说，主要是最后一小时的棒棒比较熊，下面的图，看看前两次同样的熊棒棒收盘后第二天都发生了什么？特别是这么样的一个大涨的日子，money flow居然负的那么厉害，仔细看数据的话，好像是block trades引起的，换句话说就是大户在卖，这个，确实有点可疑。当然，again，牛牛总是可以说也许第三次会不一样？嗯，我不知道，看明天吧。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.  EEM & Weekly DOWN Chances of breakdown are higher.  XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52.  USO & Weekly DOWN *3 hollow red bars in a row, rebound? XLE & Weekly DOWN Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35. XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag?  IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

raise3

jy1029

abracadabra

MtlJaysFan

Thanks

learner2009

vanmark

挑一个小刺哈，这次不是bearish engulfing啦！

dodofish

vanmark

还有一点可以YY的是由于油价被打压，加之SPY里energy比重大，基金对油气相关股票有减仓动机。

Cobra

vanmark 发表于 2011-6-27 20:10
挑一个小刺哈，这次不是bearish engulfing啦！

恩，有道理，但是主要的问题在于block trades的negative money flow。

Cobra

vanmark 发表于 2011-6-27 20:12
还有一点可以YY的是由于油价被打压，加之SPY里energy比重大，基金对油气相关股票有减仓动机。

这个反而说明熊啊，如果机构一直在抛售energy related，大盘就长不动。本来就两大板块，energy和金融，少了一半的动能，大盘还能长得动，所以你这个解释更不成立了。

CoolMax

Bencat

shoujie

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-27 19:02
SHORT-TERM: HAVE A LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT TODAY’S RALLY

今天的上涨是否意味着the low was in了，还不好 ...

这个，原来是这个原因啊。

班长  V 5

temujin

thanks

oda

maomi

vanmark

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-27 20:16
这个反而说明熊啊，如果机构一直在抛售energy related，大盘就长不动。本来就两大板块，energy和金融，少 ...

所以我前一阵子说板块分化严重。最近可能会有指数不太动，个股涨的情况出现。Tech/service都很强

vanmark

看看TLT，money肯定还在股市里。就是流向不同板块了。

jcs