Daily S&P 06272011

kenwind

As equity markets enter the final week of June, traders will focus on whether the 200 day moving average will continue to provide support (1263.00 for spx and 1250.00 for SPU1) and if SPU1 can make any upward progress beyond last week's resistance at 1279.00.  Evidence from the COT report suggests traditional commercial users are significantly less long than average and that leverage funds hold a meaningful higher than average level of short index futures.  Last week's price pattern suggest support developing at 1265.00 and the monthly price profile suggest SPU1 prices rebound inside the 6 month value area above 1270.00.  The overnight price pattern indicates support in the RTHs at 1260.00 and if prices take out the Globex high (1269.50), a short-term price target at 1275.50 (last week's highest volume price point).

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