06/24/2011 Market Outlook (Up then Down?)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:24 PM

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY

没什么solid evidence，从volume一直在增加的情况看，最快下周一就该有反弹，但是看图的感觉是下跌还没有结束。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

关于中期，同样没有什么solid evidence，但是看图的感觉，下破March Lows是迟早的事情。特别是从下图看，SOX已经领先下破，因此Nasdaq 100多半会follow，目前的情形看着很像是2007年的样子。

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.
First trading day in July, Dow up 18 of last 21.

Also:

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

~~8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?~~
~~06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all~~ ~~Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

~~06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly~~ ~~Bearish Engulfing~~ ~~and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.~~

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	DOWN
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN	Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	*2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN	Chances of breakdown are higher.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	*UP
GLD & Weekly	UP	Double Top, target $142.52.
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	*Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	*Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

lilitulip · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:25 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:27 PM

谢谢

mlif · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:28 PM

cartier · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:29 PM

maomi · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:33 PM

1st page, thanks

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:33 PM

这次投机炼油股 VLO ，和发达国家政府作对，吃了苦头。它跌出一年里的最多跌幅，超小概率被赶上了，抄底抄在珠峰的冲击营地了。

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:38 PM

guelder_rose · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:39 PM

本帖最后由 guelder_rose 于 2011-6-25 23:40 编辑

Cobra, 好久没去德版指导啦。上图分析下DAX呗！谢谢啦！

沉默是金 · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:39 PM

BRCBRC · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:46 PM

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:46 PM

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:48 PM

guelder_rose 发表于 2011-6-25 18:39
Cobra, 好久没去德版指导啦。上图分析下DAX呗！谢谢啦！

贴了。

viewer · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:49 PM

Thanks!

pearl0 · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:50 PM

like2swing · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:50 PM

EagleMM · 发表于 2011-6-25 05:55 PM

萧秋水 · 发表于 2011-6-25 06:11 PM

sycamores · 发表于 2011-6-25 06:11 PM

abracadabra · 发表于 2011-6-25 06:14 PM

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[技术分析] 06/24/2011 Market Outlook (Up then Down?)