06/20/2011 Market Outlook (Cup with Handle?)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:17 PM

SHORT-TERM: MORE UP BUT IT’S A SELL OPPORTUNITY

两点说明：

下图是可能还有涨的理由，Ascending Triangle or Cup with Handle。

认为这是个sellable bounce的理由有三，其中之一，今天的Trading Signal已经讲了，Price Volume Negative Divergence。

下面的图是另一个理由，如果大家还记得过去从底部的反弹是怎样的话，这次的反弹明显弱，当然凡事总是有例外的，说不定这次是慢热，所以现在我也不把话说死，看明天反弹的幅度吧。

最后一个理由是OEX Put Call Ratio又涨起来了，这个很可疑，因为今天CPCE才0.57，换句话说就是大家拼命call个股，OEX option traders则买了很多OEX put，而历史上，OEX option traders通常都是比较准的。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	DOWN
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN	Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	*Double Top, target 2166.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

brcm · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:19 PM

本帖最后由 brcm 于 2011-6-20 19:20 编辑

弄个蛇皮沙发真不容易哦。。。。。。

PacificLegend · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:19 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

qianshui · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:23 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:24 PM

本帖最后由 aimei 于 2011-6-20 19:24 编辑

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:25 PM

ysc · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:26 PM

葡萄柚 · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:26 PM

今天科技龙头股很多都比较弱，像aapl, goog, nflx ，看明天会不会起来。

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:26 PM

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:27 PM

wolfdoctor · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:27 PM

顶！终于坐到第一排了

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:29 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:30 PM

temujin · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:32 PM

Thanks

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:33 PM

acoust · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:35 PM

bilko540 · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:35 PM

hunting · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:36 PM

try_again · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:38 PM

Thanks

面瓜 · 发表于 2011-6-20 07:40 PM

ok,明天sell bounce，sell一半上周四超的底

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册

[技术分析] 06/20/2011 Market Outlook (Cup with Handle?)