05/05/2011 Market Outlook (No Panic Yet)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:10 PM

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT THE PULLBACK IS NOT OVER YET

三点说明：

还没有跌完，但是不能排除明天就开始大反弹的可能。
明天Non Farm Payroll day的intraday pattern一般是高开低走，低开高走，具体看here.
操作上，既使今天low was in了，至少还有一次very short-term sell bounce的机会，熊熊可以全身而退的。

为什么不能排除明天就开始大反弹的可能？今天的Trading Signals里已经给足理由了，希望大家看看，我发现很多人不看这个，不是觉得晚上的Market Outlook很复杂，看不明白吗？Trading Signals就是简单地告诉你买还是卖，怎么反而没有人看了？别告诉我这也看不懂哈，你如果订给交易信号的付费newsletter，也是这内容，而且可能还不解释理由，所以不要指望付费的newsletter能比这信号简单多少。当然，我不确定是否exactly明天反弹，反正很快就会有吧。嗯，最好明天就反弹啦，否则周末我会有坏消息告诉大家。下图是另一个看反弹的理由，RSP和QQQ都没怎么配合SPY，这个在过去就是low was in了。当然，这次由于米纸的大反弹，commodity今天很多图形都damage了，应该还有的跌，因此会拖累大盘，所以是否low was in了，还需要更多的证据。

那么，为什么我说还没有跌完呢？因为今天大家buy dip都很happy，所以虽然SPY有将近1%的下跌，但是却没有低于-1,000的TICK。前4次发生同样的事情是在02/23/2010, 01/12/2010, 05/11/2009 and 01/09/2009。自己可以看看这些日子以后都发生了什么？02/23/2010是最牛的一次了，既使这样，熊熊还是有一天的逃跑的机会的，所以我觉得目前sell bounce还是安全的，既使我无法排除the low was in的可能。

说还没有跌完还有个理由就是OEX Open Interest Ratio继续升高。

最后，有同学昨天问，为什么不提0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume (NATV/NYTV)的bottom信号了(see 05/02 Market Outlook)？因为这个信号被证明是数据错误，见下图。假如没有05/02的那个数据错误的话，05/02的bearish reversal day加上04/29的NATV/NYTV Ratio surge就足以说明大盘到顶了而不需要再等到05/04 confirm CPCE trend line broken了。NATV/NYTV surge plus SPX down 3 consecutive days plus CPCE trend line broken是非常强大的喊顶组合。Well，现在说什么都晚了。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 04/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 04/29 Market Outlook for more details. For May seasonality day by day also see 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
~~05/04 Market Outlook: At least a short-term top could have been in.~~

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	CANDLESTICK	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP	Doji
IWM & Weekly	UP	Hollow Red Bar	*Testing MA(50).
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	UP	Doji	*Testing support.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Spinning Top
TLT & Weekly	UP		*ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP		*Exhaustion bar, may rebound, but too much damage done.
GDX & Weekly	UP	Doji	*Testing trend line support.
USO & Weekly	UP		*Too much damage done, so more down ahead; Double Top!
XLE & Weekly	UP	Spinning Top	*Double Top?
XLF & Weekly	UP		*Confirmed Bear Flag breakdown, be careful.
IYR & Weekly	UP	Hollow Red Bar
XLB & Weekly	UP	Spinning Top

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

papertiger · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:14 PM

thanks!

papertiger · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:14 PM

sofa

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:14 PM

chickencoop · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:15 PM

first page

oda · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:15 PM

wjz · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:16 PM

Thanks!

abcStock · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:24 PM

snowlover · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:24 PM

thanks

COS · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:25 PM

ctcld · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:25 PM

jennifer · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:25 PM

Already wave 5?

hunting · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:35 PM

cartier · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:35 PM

2001ht09 · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:36 PM

river168 · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:38 PM

Thanks!

wnd4 · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:38 PM

thanks

牛熊 · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:39 PM

jamesmith · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:39 PM

page 1!~~!!!~!!!!

aimei · 发表于 2011-5-5 08:47 PM

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[技术分析] 05/05/2011 Market Outlook (No Panic Yet)

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