04/13/2011 大盘回顾 （To be or not to be）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL? mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few TradingMarkets long setups trigged on 04/12. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Top confirmed? 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Top? My Thoughts There’re some chances that an intermediate-term top was in.

SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A *Sell signal could be triggered, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. CI Buy & Hold 12/03 L N/A *Close long and sell short if today’s low is broken and red day tomorrow. CI Swing *Long if breakout 04/13 high and a green day tomorrow. Stop loss is 1.7*ATR(10). *Short if breakdown 04/13 low and a red day tomorrow. Stop loss is 2.0*ATR(10). Short-term DOWN N/A I hold both long (trapped) and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION UNCLEAR BUT I’M NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE MARKET

三点说明：

1. 短期方向不明，to be or not to be，只能看明天了。根据今天的After Bell Quick Summary里的统计，以及SPY 60 min最后整的Shooting Star，我倾向于not to be。
2. 怎么看VIX都像是在底部的样子，所以我还是觉得反弹，如果有的话，恐怕走不远。
3. 操作上，我优先考虑sell bounce。明天对于Cobra Impulse System来说也是to be or not to be的一天。

关于明天，下面的图应该很清楚了，要么是Double Bottom，要么是Measured Move。收盘前最后整的那个Shooting Star看着不好，所以我猜明天早盘可能会比较弱。

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，这个是我比较担心的地方，VIX:VXV很低不说，VIX整了那么多反转棒棒，看起来是要反转向上的样子啊，这对大盘不是好消息。

 

关于明天的操作，首先Non-Stop可能出卖信号了，我觉得最好等明天再看，以防是whipsaw。这个model的winning rate只有50%，是靠一次做对了狠赚一笔来挣钱的，这是一般trend following system的典型模式。中间的套利，我就不说了，具体可以看8.2.2a Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2004到8.2.2g Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2010，如果你明白trend line的应用的话，最近的两笔交易是不会赔钱的，当然，既使赔了也没错，毕竟这种洗桶是靠少数几次持续时间较长的trend来挣钱的。

 

关于Cobra Impulse System的操作，如果你遵循了15 min Open Range的话，今天应该没有long，但是这个long setup明天还有效，只不过明天又有了一个可能的short setup，所以：

1. 明天收绿，且high过今天的high，就是long，明天收红，且low过今天的low就是short。
2. 明天如果高开，直接高过今天的high，请使用15 min Open Range breakout作确认，明天低开，直接低过今天的low，也同样使用15 min Open Range breakdown作确认。
3. 明天既有higher high又有lower low怎么办？取决于明天最终收绿还是收红。收绿，就是long，收红就是short。很复杂是吧？这次赶巧了，两个setup碰一块了。
4. 明天short setup确认的话，Cobra Impulse System会进入正式的sell模式，也就是说officially to me the intermediate-term trend is down。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
2. April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
3. Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

oldfox

IMeMyself

Floor

brcm

...........ding.........

当时惘然

thanks

rosyrosy

tang1688

当时惘然

回复 Cobra 的帖子

a question for you.
The CPCE shows 0.66, 10% higher than yesterday, it means lots of retailer traders buy put ;
But ISE shows 242 lower than yesterday, it means retailer traders did not buy too much long options.
It seems those two index are conflict.
Do you have any conclusion about them ? Thanks.

jamesmith

first page, 蛇老大千秋万代, 一统江湖, 美女成群, 儿孙满堂~~ 阿门~~

Billyboy

Thanks

navybean

Thanks

MFTHT

3x.

萧秋水

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子

oda

thanks,

nokia

cartier

bucks

chickencoop

源济