04/11/2011 大盘回顾（More Bad Signs）

Cobra · 发表于 2011-4-11 05:54 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	5 of 5 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term		6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15	04/03 : 04/05	04/04-04/13	Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH	09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH	4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Top confirmed? 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Top?
My Thoughts	The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SYSTEM	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop	03/31 L	N/A
CI buy & hold	12/03 L	N/A
CI Swing	~~03/16 L~~	~~04/07 L~~	Long position stopped out on 04/08.
Short-term	*DOWN	N/A	I hold both long and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT NOT SO BRIGHT AHEAD

三点说明：

明天看涨的理由，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了一个，不是很solid，但是下面的统计来自Quantifiable Edges，好像挺有说服力的。

另一个理由是Sentimentrader的short-term indicators超卖的很多，特别是STEM.MR Model，毕竟现在中期还是上升趋势，所以trading oversold要比trading overbought安全的多。

下面是坏消息：

2009年以来所有较大的回调都是从SPX连跌三天开始的。

OEX option traders继续买进大量的put。

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，今天算是确认top了。这个信号，老胡同都知道，属于降龙十八掌级的，当然你说这年头非得葵花宝典才行，恩，你猛。

VIX:VXV，这个可能最近工作的不好，但是还是有必要知道一下，因为原理上讲，90天的volatility比30天的volatility高，意味着中期bearish。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

ninemao · 发表于 2011-4-11 05:55 PM

First one

grandwalnut · 发表于 2011-4-11 05:58 PM

本帖最后由 grandwalnut 于 2011-4-11 14:59 编辑

回复 Cobra 的帖子

2nd. haha
thanks

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-4-11 05:59 PM

thank you

pig2006 · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:00 PM

ninemao · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:02 PM

明天跌一点点，你也熊嗎?

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:03 PM

Ding

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:04 PM

老六也不错

layschips · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:04 PM

偶咋觉着都是这个信号给弄滴，hia hia hia hia

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:05 PM

白天灌水已经第一，

全天总分第一。

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:06 PM

There is a difference between the current 3-day decline and the previous ones: no big one day drop in the current 3-day decline.

littlevivi · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:10 PM

first page!

jamesmith · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:12 PM

first page!!!!

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:14 PM

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:17 PM

Cobra laoda, today spy only down 0.3%, while vix down more than 7%. Is there any reason or edges? THanks

MtlJaysFan · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:23 PM

Fan8an · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:26 PM

First page

oda · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:29 PM

cartier · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:30 PM

IMeMyself · 发表于 2011-4-11 06:30 PM

First page

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[技术分析] 04/11/2011 大盘回顾（More Bad Signs）