04/05/2011 大盘回顾（Ascending Triangle or Double Top?）

Cobra · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:43 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	4 of 5 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term		6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15	04/03 : 04/05	04/04-04/13	Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH	09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH	4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts	The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	03/31 L	N/A	Beware the winning rate is below 50%, it’s the gain/loss ratio that matters.
ST Model	~~03/22 S~~	~~1.9*ATR(10)~~	Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss. Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon.
Short-term	UP	03/29 Low	I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, LET’S WAIT FOR TOMORROW

今天看不出来方向，往上突破就是Ascending Triangle，往下突破则是Double Top，只能看明天了。

两个值得注意的地方，都不是很extreme，所以info only。

SPY连着三个反转棒棒(solid black bar = open high close lower but still above the last close, hollow red bar = open low close higher but still below the last close, both imply that bulls and bears are fighting for the control therefore could mean a reversal is pending)，看着不好。当然，最近反转棒不怎么好使，所以不清楚他们是否会起作用。

OEX option trader持续买入put。以前说过，OEX option trader通常是比较准的，所以这个不是好现象。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP	Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	*04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

buctusa · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:44 PM

本帖最后由 buctusa 于 2011-4-5 19:45 编辑

buctusa · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:44 PM

buctusa · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:45 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:51 PM

happyface · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:52 PM

trueself · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:52 PM

farmer01 · 发表于 2011-4-5 06:54 PM

dreampen · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:00 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:05 PM

fu2008 · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:07 PM

jennifer · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:12 PM

Hold long.

netfire · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:14 PM

skipjack · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:14 PM

thanks

greenapple_9999 · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:23 PM

Thanks.

farshine · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:28 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:29 PM

Thanks

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:30 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:30 PM

BRCBRC · 发表于 2011-4-5 07:31 PM

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[技术分析] 04/05/2011 大盘回顾（Ascending Triangle or Double Top?）

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[技术分析] 04/05/2011 大盘回顾 （Ascending Triangle or Double Top?）

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[技术分析] 04/05/2011 大盘回顾（Ascending Triangle or Double Top?）