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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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ST Model |
02/17 L |
Breakeven |
*Stopped out long position on 02/22 with loss. |
Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is *DOWN. I hold partial short position overnight. | |
My Thoughts |
I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT I EXPECT A 2ND LEG DOWN THEREAFTER
今天没有结论,一切都要看明后天大盘如何反弹。最近一共有三次SPX > 20点的pullback,如果按照通常的pullback越来越大的规律的话,那么应该可能性非常大,我们这次是2 leg down at least,换句话说,就是还没有跌完。当然,因为市场最近很牛,加上VIX is now way above BB and MA ENV(10, 20) top(注意,是20% above MA10哈,不是常见的10% above MA10 which is nothing),因此也无法排除今天就bottom了的可能性(像前两次pullback一样)。Personally, 我暂时比较倾向于会有2nd leg down at least。
下面是明天可能收绿的理由:
VIX rose 18%+ on a single day, buy SPX at close and sell at the next day’s close since year 2000, you have 81% chances for tomorrow.
36 out of 54 times (67%) a green day the next day after a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9).
下面是可能短期底部的理由:
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB), 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV), VIX out of BB top or MA ENV(10, 20) is a potential buy setup.
好像最近凡是VIX:VXV > 0.9都是底部。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE NO 2.5%+ PULLBACK FOR 85 MORE TRADING DAYS, BEARS MAY WAIT ANOTHER WEEK, BUT DON’T HOPE TOO MUCH
See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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