02/10/2011 大盘回顾 （2.5%+ pullback either has started or never?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold trapped short position overnight.

My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: 2.5%+ PULLBACK EITHER HAS STARTED OR NEVER

 

必须承认，今天的sharp gap down then sharp reversal to close in green是非常bullish的pattern，此后应该继续涨的可能性大。所以今天的结论"2.5%+ pullback either has started or never”多少有点speculative的成分，当笑话看看吧。

 

两个理由：

1. 在02/04 Market Recap里我提到61 trading day的threshold for not having 2.5%+ pullbacks，今天是第59 trading day，也就是说如果要有2.5%+ pullback的话，就该在这两天了。
2. INDU has been up 7+ days in a row，让我们看看自2000年以来的全部9个case。其中5 out of 9，7+ consecutive up days后，就有2.5%+ pullback，而其余4个case，则根本没有pullback。因此如果我们这次跟过去一样的话，那么，要么今天就是pullback的开始，因为今天是INDU 8 consecutive up day后的第一个red day (that 5 out 9 cases)，要么，就是89 trading days以后才有pullback (the other 4 cases)。另外，顺便说，熊熊对pullback (if indeed)不要期望太高，只有1 out of 9 cases有像样的回调，而其他此后都是非常bullish的。这个应该不难理解，因为这里是地球，是有惯性的，很难想象我们现在INDU up 8 days in a row的strong up momentum，会突然终止，大盘此后大跌猛跌。

 

下面的图是明天的看点，还是老话，要熊的话，at least intraday图上要整出个lower low先，既所谓的1-2-3 Trend Change。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

atrader

thanks
天天看班长报告。沙发是第一次。

oldfox

福多多

happyface

thanks

HTER

fara

safa

fara

no, it is floor.

德州牛仔

slcgh

trender

davidqi

Thanks Mr. Cobra. Futures is in deep red, the pullback is coming.

yy5142

thanks,

dingdingdang

jy1029

bandeng

chujingluyou

Thanks!

plmt

:(63)::(63):

trueself

jWishbone

Thanks.

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