02/07/2011 大盘回顾 （As a bear, do you see hopes via today’s market action?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

 

今天分成两篇讲同样的东西没有多大意思，所以After Bell Quick Summary，就免了吧。关心demo account的，今天是winning trade, obviously。Demo account的最大问题是gain loss ratio很poor (I’m still working on this issue)，而不是winning rate，所以通常不要指望demo account fail。

 

今天的market action，让我这个道义上的熊熊感觉很绝望（主要因为天天涨的话，很快就会没人来看我的market recap了，呵呵），但是，surprisingly，在My Forum做的调查，竟然是很多熊熊看到了希望。我不知道这是bullish还是bearish，各位自己解读吧。

 

 

短期，I expect a pullback of some kind for 2 reasons。

 

INDU has been up 6 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, you have 73% chances to win something.

 

 

SPY up 3 days in a row but the volume down 2 days in a row (so called price volume negative divergence), bears may have some edges in 6 trading days.

 

 

P.S. In case you want to ask, no, there’s no edges when both VIX and SPX close in green on the same day.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	*TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

Poo

xuetu

板凳?

hometh

bd

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks.

raise3

oda

ninemao

这个统计不客观，班长有诱导之嫌。

michaelzhang

floor

slcgh

michaelzhang

netfire

xuetu

tonghu

老大今天spx和vix同时收绿有没有说法？

开小差

thx,ding

dxzhu

Ding, First page

不怕被套怕枕套

源济

jWishbone

Thanks.

Cobra

老大今天spx和vix同时收绿有没有说法？
tonghu 发表于 2011-2-7 17:26

    没有edge。