02/03/2011 大盘回顾 （New High Tomorrow?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven *Stopped out of long position flat. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts Clueless as ALWAYS.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE NEW HIGH TOMORROW, BUT BEWARE OF THE GENERAL NFP DAY PATTERN

 

今天还是没有什么好说的，所以After Bell Quick Summary就免了吧。周二的strong up到今天还没有follow through，因此不能排除今天half day rebound是test the previous high的可能性，所以短期方向不明，熊熊还没有彻底绝望。

 

 

关于明天Non Farm Payroll，三点说法：

 

可能明天高开，至少会有higher high，因为INDU今天有new high了，SPX多半会follow。(Yes, I’ve noticed that SPX still owns INDU a lower low, that is remained to be seen.)

 

 

Non Farm Payroll day generally bullish。

 

 

Non Farm Payroll day intraday pattern往往是高开低走或者低开高走。下面的screenshot来自Bespoke。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

 

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM		ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

trender

SF

tst2007

沙发?

trender

Ban Deng

tst2007

沙发抢到,作下来.慢慢读

trender

谢谢老蛇。

trender

沙发抢到,作下来.慢慢读
tst2007 发表于 2011-2-3 16:53

    兄弟你晚了一步，不好意思

jWishbone

Thanks.

Bencat

whzdf

c3456

raise3

兄弟你晚了一步，不好意思
trender 发表于 2011-2-3 16:54

   

Simpletrader

Cobra, 辛苦了。新年新气象。祝胡同越来越好。

leftright

Diver

...
Cobra 发表于 2011-2-3 16:51

jamesmith

hmm，统计上看，高开对熊熊更有利

开小差

thx, ding

Cobra

Cobra, 辛苦了。新年新气象。祝胡同越来越好。
Simpletrader 发表于 2011-2-3 16:58

    新气象就是要有波动，股市天天这样没话说，这个网站就完蛋鸟。

benshou

atrader

thanks