02/01/2011 大盘回顾 （The Next Price and Time Target and Bear's Last Hope）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are *BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. *6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model *Long if pullback to 02/01 SPY mid price around $130.18 or below but still above $127.12. The buy signal was triggered on 02/01 intraday, but since I cannot give an intraday signal so has to wait for the pullback before entering a long position. The stop loss would be 1.9 * ATR(10). Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *UP. I hold partial long position overnight.

My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE NEXT PRICE TARGET IS SPX 1314 AND PIVOT DATE AROUND 02/07, BEAR’S BEST BET IS THE VERY HIGH NYADV READINGS

 

昨天说了，只要今天来个光头光脚的大白棒棒(Marubozo) to new high，熊熊就没戏了，就算明天开始大跌，经历一个1-2-3 trend change也需要几天时间，back test the previous high is almost guaranteed，所以牛牛至少短期内是安全了。

 

 

下面的图是关于next price and time target的分析。关于time target，除了图中给出的种种巧合以外，02/04的Non Farm Payroll也往往是pivot day，所以熊熊的best bet可能是要到下周了。

 

 

下面的图是熊熊最后的希望，虽然longer history，今天的NYADV读数不算啥，见6.4.1b Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，但是最近还是有点edge的，所以明天如果是小棒棒，就有希望，如果又是一根大白棒棒的话，恐怕intermediate-term target就不是1300的问题了，这个，明天再说吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

 

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM		ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	*02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

happyface

沙发

IMeMyself

shafa

happyface

吼吼

lehldk

Up

go00ww

first page

萧秋水

晕，我只得一个地板。怎么2个沙发？？哈哈哈

老蛇辛苦了，多谢。

小财虫

dreampen

SmartyJones

Thanks!

一马平川

oldfox

Diver

It can almost be declared that bears are dying now, though official announcement has to wait until after this Friday.

...
Cobra 发表于 2011-2-1 20:48

dxzhu

First page. Ding!

dreampen

有大本顶着，熊熊没戏。

Forevergreen

thanks

Jinan90

谢谢。
今天艳阳天，俺的个股却有个被大屠杀了-好疼。

aveda

skipjack

Thanks

1234

谢谢老蛇