01/31/2011 大盘回顾（Just a Rebound）

Cobra · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:34 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	3 of 5 are SELL	4 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term		5 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04	02/02 : 02/04	02/13,02/19	Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy signal.

BEARISH

*1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max was 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
~~8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002~~ to ~~8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.~~
~~01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.~~
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	09/07 L	N/A
ST Model			Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though.
Short-term	N/A	N/A	Trend is DOWN. I hold short position overnight.

My Thoughts

Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

SHORT-TERM: SO FAR, JUST A REBOUND

两点说明：

今天还是没有lower low，因此熊熊要耐心。如果把今天的high看成lower high的话，熊熊只要breakdown below周五的low，就会有一个1-2-3 trend change pattern了，当然，最好是breakdown below 01/20 lows。
暂时定义今天is just a rebound，理由还是周五的下跌很猛，很少有one leg down就结束的，因此at least the Friday’s lows will be tested。

下面的看点。今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了，明天因为是二月的第一个交易日，可能very very bullish，对熊熊来说，根据N vs N，只要明天牛牛不能new high，而是涨到后天，甚至大后天才有new high就是胜利，by definition，这还是个sellable bounce。当然，如果明天牛牛来个光头光脚的大白棒棒(Marubozo)，直接new high了，那么，没说的，熊熊又没戏了，嗯，注意这个“又”字。

下面的图是，Institutions Buying and Selling Trending from StockTiming as requested.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM		ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	*UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	01/19 S
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

jennifer · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:36 PM

板凳！

dreampen · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:39 PM

Thanks!

面瓜 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:41 PM

谢谢

hb15618 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:43 PM

first page

Ed02 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:44 PM

1st page!

c3456 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:44 PM

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:45 PM

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:45 PM

福多多 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:45 PM

michaelzhang · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:45 PM

greatinter · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:50 PM

dreampen · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:54 PM

oldfox · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:55 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:58 PM

Thanks

farmer01 · 发表于 2011-1-31 07:58 PM

thanks]

不怕被套怕枕套 · 发表于 2011-1-31 08:01 PM

ahdou · 发表于 2011-1-31 08:04 PM

谢谢班长！

mikeqc · 发表于 2011-1-31 08:07 PM

1st page?

happyface · 发表于 2011-1-31 08:08 PM

thanks

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册

[技术分析] 01/31/2011 大盘回顾（Just a Rebound）

评分

[技术分析] 01/31/2011 大盘回顾 （Just a Rebound）

评分

[技术分析] 01/31/2011 大盘回顾（Just a Rebound）