01/28/2011 大盘回顾 （No Lower Low Yet）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are *SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow? *6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy signal. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max was 26. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). Failed! 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. Failed! 01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped? 01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI is way too high, could mean a top of some kind. *4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *DOWN. I hold partial short position over the weekend.

My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

 

SHORT-TERM: DAILY CHART DOESN’T LOOK GOOD BUT SO FAR NO LOWER LOW YET

 

三点说明：

 

• Daily图很难看，如果按照N vs N rule的话，熊熊又进了一球。不过，so far no lower low，因此还是没有我一直blah blah的1-2-3 trend change (see SPY 60 min chart next)，所以，严格的讲，现在说熊还早。

 

 

• 周五的下跌很猛，牛牛甚至连Flag都没有树起来，因此假如神奇伟大的POMO还没有来得急改变地球的惯性的话，there’s one more leg down at least to test the 01/20 lows。

 

 

• VIX rose more than 18% on Friday，自1999年开始，这意味着周一或者周二会有反弹，特别是周二，according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in February, Dow and SPX up 7 of last 8。

 

 

最后提醒一下6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB)，这是个potential buy setup。因此，其实again，熊熊只是看到了hope，这个hope能否变成reality，很难说。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

 

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased for 2 charts below:

 

4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals, weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 当然，要说明的是，这在90s不算什么，所以也许不能read into it too much。

 

 

4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, SPX Bullish Percent Index is till way too high.

 

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	*01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM		*ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly	*DOWN
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	*STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	*?	*The rebound is strong, so not sure about downtrend anymore.
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	01/19 S
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

mikeqc

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mikeqc

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地板？

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其余的让给别人吧。

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SmartyJones

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被FED吓得，连老蛇都不敢轻易说熊了。

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