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| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
*1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow? |
| BEARISH |
*1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence means SPX < 1271 in 2 weeks. Failed.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Too high above MA(200).
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 01/18.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
*01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week. | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is DOWN. I hold short position over the weekend. | |
| My Thoughts |
Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, it looks like so though. | |
SHORT-TERM: INDU HIGHER HIGH AHEAD BUT MAY CLOSE THE WEEK IN RED
01/18 highs是否是the high，熊熊至少要整出个1-2-3 Trend Change pattern来，so far还没有，所以现在只能等。
My best guess is:
- 下周INDU会有higher high，so will SPX，但是这个higher high不是decisively breakout of the SPX 01/18 highs，因为下周INDU最终收红的可能性很大，因此1-2-3 Trend Change pattern，依然有成立的可能。不过，既使1-2-3 Trend Change pattern依然有成立的可能，我现在还没有证据可以确认下周1-2-3 Trend Change pattern可以确认。
- 如果下周真有higher high的话，最大的可能是on 01/26，换句话说，01/26可能是pivot day。
先说说为什么INDU会有higher high and so will SPX，为什么INDU最终可能weekly收红。
下面的图是主要论据。INDU up 8 weeks in a row, the next week most likely was in red but a higher high was guaranteed in THE MOST RECENT YEARS。如果测试整个INDU history的话，虽然并不保证下周一定收红，但是short at the Friday’s close (that’s 01/21) and cover at the first down week close, it was 79% winning rate。因此，总体看起来，下周INDU收红的结论还是有一定的可信度的。
INDU如果higher high的话，I expect SPX to follow，因为1.2.0 INDU Leads Market。顺便说，并不是说INDU真的leads Market，而是因为INDU包含liquidity最大，weight最重的30支股票，因此INDU易于被操纵，big guys往往用INDU拉盘或者砸盘，所以看起来INDU leads。
那么，为什么说，如果真有higher high的话，可能是26号？
因为FOMC是26号，从下图看，FOMC是pivot day的可能性还是比较大的。此外，去年，如果大家还有记忆的话，很多pivot day都发生在day 25附近。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/18 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN
既然短期都不能确认是否pullback结束了，那么，中期是否top了，只能wait and see了。下面的图只是给个概念，不是说就要跌到那里了：一旦中期correction开始的话，the general target大约是SPX 1220 to 1230。
SEASONALITY: THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUGUST 2009 WERE BEARISH
下面的图不用多说了，short at 01/27 close then cover at 01/31 close, odds are 15 out of 17.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-22 09:50 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-1-22 09:52 PM
辛苦了！
发表于 2011-1-22 10:47 PM
