01/13/2011 大盘回顾 （The Tale of INTC ER）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence means negative ahead. 01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. 01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP.  I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts A correction is just a matter of time, but until price confirms, I prefer long to short, with caution though.

 

SHORT-TERM: INTC ER COULD BE A PIVOT POINT

 

今天的看点是盘后INTC的ER，看起来反映不错，不过，从下面的统计看(courtesy of Bespoke)，INTC ER后的第一天，多半是高开低走。

 

 

另外，统计上讲，INTC ER往往是大盘的pivot point。下面的图是最近几次INTC ER后的情形，在pivot附近的cases还是比较多的。

 

 

下面的统计来自Sentimentrader，比较适合我们现在的情况，看起来后面几周不太好玩。特别是seasonality也配合这样的统计，因为QQQQ每年的第8个交易日起到一月底performance都不好，参看8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010，好像还没有例外的。

 

QQQQ Performance When Intel Reports And QQQQ Is Within 2% Of A 1-Year High
Date	Two Weeks Later	Max Loss	Max Gain
04/13/99	-1.6%	-10.7%	4.7%
07/13/99	-1.9%	-5.9%	4.2%
10/12/99	-2.8%	-9.1%	0.1%
01/13/00	-1.7%	-8.5%	7.0%
07/15/03	-2.6%	-5.1%	0.7%
10/14/03	-0.0%	-5.2%	1.5%
01/14/04	-2.7%	-3.7%	2.4%
01/17/06	-1.3%	-3.8%	0.3%
04/19/06	-1.9%	-3.2%	0.5%
01/16/07	-2.7%	-4.4%	0.0%
04/17/07	2.8%	-1.0%	3.4%
07/17/07	-4.6%	-6.5%	0.9%
10/16/07	4.1%	-1.7%	4.2%
10/13/09	-2.8%	-3.0%	2.9%
01/14/10	-7.8%	-8.1%	0.5%
Average	-2.1%	-5.0%	2.2%

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 01/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

See 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/10 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT		Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly	UP
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S	1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	01/06 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

dreampen

大沙发

mikeqc

板凳

oldfox

mikeqc

高开低走

atrader

thanks

dreampen

强烈要求高开低走

leftright

ahdou

first page

abracadabra

X中国陆军

snowlover

thanks

vicvic

tonyshen

blackrock

IMeMyself

First page

skipjack

Thanks

student009

Jinan90

哇，首页。谢谢老大辛勤工作。

Jinan90

哇，首页。谢谢老大辛勤工作。
Jinan90 发表于 2011-1-13 20:33

    对不及时过来做功课的同学要打屁股。三次缺堂就告家长。