12/06/2010 大盘回顾（Bear's Best Day of Best Week to Attack）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:43 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	3 of 5 are BUY	4 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	Model is BUY	6 of 6 are NEUTRAL	I hold partial long position overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
12/02,12/09,12/11	12/05 : 12/07	Week 11/26, 12/26	Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH

~~0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals~~: ~~Head and Shoulders Bottom~~ ~~breakout, target 1242.~~
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
~~11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.~~
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.

BEARISH

1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	09/07 L	N/A
ST Model	~~11/23 S~~	~~1.9*ATR(10)~~	Stopped out on 12/02 with losses.
NYMO Sell	~~11/12 S~~	~~11/26 High~~	Stopped out flat on 12/01. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX IS STILL WAY TOO HIGH

我一直在说，要注意ISEE Equities Only Index，大盘能走多远，取决于这个东东疯狂的程度。很遗憾，今天ISEE Equities Only Index又收在260以上。下面的图是最近所有大于260的记录，是不是看着和04/26 top的时候很像啊？(Also see 8.2.7a Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2006 – 2007 for the past records)

换个角度来看，下面的图highlighted in red，是ISEE Equities Only Index MA(10)大于229的所有记录，此后都发生了什么，应该很清楚哈。

以上，I have no idea是否这次还工作，虽然理论上讲，作TA分析的，应该never ever think maybe this time is different。目前我能选择的最佳说法就是12/03 Market Recap里提到的，熊熊要反击的话，要么本周，要么就要new year以后了。证据看，明天red的可能性很大，考虑到今天是Magic Day 6，因此如果说，本周是熊熊的best chance的话，今天则是熊熊本周的best date（嗯，最好留点余地，加个之一吧。呵呵）

明天为什么可能收红？

除今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到的CPC <= 0.80以外，看看最近VIX黑棒棒后第二天都发生了什么？

此外，Seasonality，明天是12月最可能收红的一天。

为什么说今天可能是熊熊本周的best date？

除了table above列的New Moon and Solar Term date以外，今天是Magic Day 6，就是说自2000年以来，pivot day发生最多的日子是每个月的6号。

此外，如果这仅仅是短期反弹的话，今天是the 5th trading day，也算是符合了5 to 7 trading day rebound的range了。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/02 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		*ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		ChiOsc is a little too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L	ChiOsc is way too high.
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L	ChiOsc is way too high.
XLB Weekly	UP

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

happyface · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:44 PM

沙发

happyface · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:45 PM

Yes!!!

flash · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:45 PM

shafa

greatinter · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:48 PM

chickencoop · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:49 PM

thanks

atrader · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:49 PM

thanks

oldfox · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:50 PM

maomi · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:51 PM

1st page? Thanks Cobra Lao Da

Thirty-cents · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:52 PM

thanks,

skipjack · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:52 PM

Thanks

ahdou · 发表于 2010-12-6 08:55 PM

fead · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:01 PM

thanks!

开小差 · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:01 PM

thx,ding

t-k · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:03 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:07 PM

1st page

wnd4 · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:08 PM

thanks

Summerrose · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:10 PM

etrade · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:11 PM

回复 1# Cobra

mikeqc · 发表于 2010-12-6 09:13 PM

1st page?

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[技术分析] 12/06/2010 大盘回顾（Bear's Best Day of Best Week to Attack）

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[技术分析] 12/06/2010 大盘回顾 （Bear's Best Day of Best Week to Attack）

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[技术分析] 12/06/2010 大盘回顾（Bear's Best Day of Best Week to Attack）