07/01/2010 白天灌水

csw2002

JP just sold again

Cobra

AAII bullish很低了，不到25% xiaoyaoxl 发表于 2010-7-1 10:28

 

那只是表示很多人不看牛，但是熊很少。2009年的噩梦，熊们还记得呢。下面是AAII 25%以下牛的测试，并不bullish。我说话都是有根据地，呵呵。

 

Typically, the knee-jerk contrarian conclusion would be that this should be bullish for the market.  Instead of just guessing, tough, let's go back to the survey's inception in 1987 and look at how the S&P 500 fared going forward whenever the percentage of bulls was at or below 25% and also at least 2 standard deviations below the one-year average.

 

Date	1 Week Later	2 Weeks Later	1 Month Later	2 Months Later	3 Months Later
02/07/90	-0.5%	-1.8%	1.0%	2.2%	0.2%
09/26/90	2.1%	-1.5%	2.5%	3.6%	8.2%
07/01/92	-0.6%	1.0%	2.3%	0.2%	1.1%
09/02/92	-0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.5%	2.7%
06/03/98	2.7%	2.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.1%
08/19/98	-1.3%	-9.8%	-4.8%	-8.4%	2.1%
08/26/98	-8.6%	-7.2%	-1.7%	-1.3%	5.6%
09/02/98	1.6%	5.6%	2.7%	7.8%	19.8%
03/23/05	0.8%	1.0%	-3.0%	1.1%	2.9%
04/13/05	-3.1%	-1.5%	-0.2%	1.8%	1.8%
01/09/08	-2.6%	-5.0%	-5.9%	-5.4%	-3.0%
01/16/08	-2.5%	-1.3%	-0.4%	-4.7%	-1.4%
03/05/08	-1.9%	-2.7%	2.5%	3.9%	4.3%
03/12/08	-0.8%	2.5%	3.5%	6.4%	5.2%
Average	-1.1%	-1.3%	0.3%	0.8%	3.6%
% Positive	29%	43%	50%	71%	86%

风信子

layschips

怪了，昨天跌不少，$CPCE竟然不升反降
看来牛牛的皮还真是厚。。。

csw2002

Swiss bank just sold on the low print again!

sfbayarea

Cobra

这么长时间了，应该有体会了，很多股市里的流传说法，其实都不对，所以凡事都要验证，千万不要人云亦云。比如，昨天才说的MA50 to MA200 dead cross，其实并不说明问题。又比如说是月末window dressing，其实也不对，月末往往很熊的。

AGA7d

到1010我就试试

hbw

黄金开始祸害人了。

yaobooyao

SPY 反弹到102.20,  试探我的止损线.
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-7-1 10:23

哈哈,  今天SPY  的分钟图,  好象大厦门口的那个瀑布喷泉,  一层一层往下流.

日内DT 定式 - 三次探底杀跌为入点. 反弹破下降趋势线放量止损走人,  已经两次机会了.

AGA7d

到1000我就全进

nstar

haha, same thing, people have had the worst, they believe the future is bright, the stock market will bounce back ultimately, because it has bounced back from spx 666.
I know a person, bought ar the peak of 1999 or 2000? and still holding, he said he would hold for another 10 years, hahaha......
Oops, nstar, be nice.

应该说the memory of 2009 is still fresh，赚钱can be that easy，所以现在其实没有多少人相信会 ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-7-1 10:27

csw2002

Papers are selling - relentlessly - swiss did another 100 cars

yaobooyao

my company reported Q2 ER today, profit jumped 23%, topped analyst estimate
manhattan 发表于 2010-7-1 10:28

TICK ?

NZX

到1000我就全进
AGA7d 发表于 2010-7-1 10:40

    能说说接飞刀的理由吗？

丛林法则

MM果然没人性啊,还好抄底不多,,,,,,

匪兵甲

到1000我就全进
AGA7d 发表于 2010-7-1 10:40

    老大, 还是小心为好啊...

Cobra

我靠，这market是怎么了？病入膏肓了。没有熊熊庆祝，也没有牛牛放弃。到这个时候，恐怕啥分析也没用了，给大家的建议就是，别抄底。QQQQ down 9天in a row，不会一次性反弹就成功的，一定会有the 2nd leg down的，所以现在不是做英雄的时候。

氢氧化钠

这么长时间了，应该有体会了，很多股市里的流传说法，其实都不对，所以凡事都要验证，千万不要人云亦云。比 ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-7-1 10:39

    报告老大，market rumor往往不可靠！trade what you see, not what you believe

X!nG

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