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发表于 2010-11-12 04:27 PM
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The trade-term trend definitely reacted to the weak news from Cisco; it also reacted to the now somewhat veiled international disagreements over what several foreign countries see as currency manipulation by the Fed with its QE2 program. Issues of economic importance are discussed below. The currency disagreements stem from the U.S. large trade deficit with China, which has a large trade surplus. In October, China shipped $25 billion in goods to the U.S. but bought only $7 billion in return. That keeps American manufacturers from creating jobs at home. From the public discords from other countries, it is a rational assumption that while the United States has promised not to deliberately weaken the dollar, by printing money and flooding the U.S. economy, the Fed's QE2 plan is essentially doing just that. This has led to other large economies, like Brazil and Japan, taking protective actions, with efforts to devalue their currencies to maintain their competitive trading edges. All of these actions, both domestic and foreign, constitute alternate forms of protectionism, and heighten fears of an all-out global trade war, where countries consciously and competitively devalue their currencies, just to keep up with each other. There is no denying that a global trade war would cause the already varying economic growth rates to become more uneven between countries and that would be an invitation for politicians to try to intervene with the outcomes being uglier and uglier confrontations that ultimately result in serious adverse pressures on stock prices. At the moment hope continues that worldwide economic pressures can be contained and cooperation will supplant confrontations before 1930's Smoot Hawley-type legislative solutions precipitate another great recession |
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