|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2012-10-13 01:03 AM
|
显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2012-10-13 01:28 AM 编辑
Answer to ethanlinear this M top -- please refer to this one "盘整背驰的精确定义和三种扩展应用" -- http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_82b2c3350100zlpn.html.
I think it's the best understanding of 缠论的盘整背驰.
First look day2-new.png, which shows 2 中枢 30F上涨趋势 from 06/04/2012 low SPX 1266. 9--12 makes the 2nd 30F 中枢, 1213 is 盘整背驰 to 89, this why SPX fall on 09/14 1474.51, which is the 1st top of M. How to judge 9/26 low 14 is the end of 5F down run from 13? The answer is the reversal direction compare 89 and 1314 using MACD area.
Next look 10Min chart, numbers from 1 to 17 are 1F走势, 234567 make the 5F中枢. 78 is not 盘整背驰 to 12 on this 5F中枢. However, 1-8 has grow to 5F走势, and 缠论里曾有一句话，背驰也要综合多级别去看. 大级别 dominate 小级别. 1-8 5F走势 is not strong compare to 01 -- which is 1213 on the day2-new chart, let alone it could compete the 89 on daily chart. This is the reason why SPX turned back north on 09/26/2012.
To make the call of 8, first you should pay attention that the blue MACD histogram under 78 on 10Min chart shrinks, next look 1min chart that has labled 1F线段. 00 -- 2 is the 10Min chart 78. There are 2 笔中枢 on 12 1F线段, first at final hour of 09/25, and second is first hour of 09/26. When SPX hit 1430.53 low on 10:38AM EST, both the MACD yellow line and histogram 背驰, and 23 is 7笔 make up a 1F线段 to end the 12 1F线段. BY the time of 9/27 morning 11, a new 5F中枢 is build up, zone is 1433, 1439. In fact, SPX still has the chance to dive hard to make 1 2中枢 5F下跌趋势, but it has to escape this new 5F中枢 by a 3rd selling point. But the later rise of SPX on 9/27 make this choice impossible as 9/27 high -- 11 on 10 min chart overlap low of 9/20 -- 4 on 10 min chart. Hence when 9/28 low 12 is high than 10 that make HH and HL on the 10Min chart, and on day2-new chart, 14 is the 3rd buy point for 30F 中枢 made in late Aug. You should expect SPX re-visiting 9/14 high 1474.51.
1F走势1415 on 10Min chart is 2 中枢 1F上涨趋势, very classic 标准趋势背驰 ended 10/05 top. Considering 8-15 5F走势 is weaker than 1--8 5F走势 as 15 is lower than 1. From above we already know that 1--8 5F走势 is the weak one using 盘整背驰 on 30F中枢, now we had this even weaker than 1--8 5F走势. Hence 15 on 10/05 make the 2nd top of M.
|
评分
-
1
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2012-10-12 06:29 PM
发表于 2012-10-14 10:36 AM
