今天大盘涨跌全是LEH惹的祸

还在发呆

原帖由 Ponzi 于 2008-6-3 19:25 发表 DaFo's analysis is good, but it seems like the leverage level at LEH is not considered.

 

i think leverage level is important only when there is risk that LEH will lose all its net asset, which leads to chapter 11. maybe DaFo sees no such risk so he ignored this. Anyway, i don't have any data, do you have any data on this?

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-6-3 20:08 发表   好，老大说说，从SPY日内图上看，可不可以说137.5接盘有力，底部放量，对牛牛有利。

不觉得，是跌的太猛， 时间上还没到位。明天可能再横盘一天， 时间就差不多了

Ponzi

I don't have data on LEH's current leverage level either. It was pretty high a couple months ago. Like BSC, LEH's rish is not from its financial loss but the possibility of a bank run. I just feel that LEH's leverage level will also amplify the impact of a bank run.

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-3 20:25 发表 不觉得，是跌的太猛， 时间上还没到位。明天可能再横盘一天， 时间就差不多了

 

看来是我bias太强了。

还在发呆

原帖由 Ponzi 于 2008-6-3 21:17 发表 I don't have data on LEH's current leverage level either. It was pretty high a couple months ago. Like BSC, LEH's rish is not from its financial loss but the possibility of a bank run. I just feel tha ...

 

i think the amount of cash is more important if bank run is on concern. BSC said they have 17B which vaporized in a few days. Now LEH claimed they have 40B, much more than what BSC had, but not sure how long it can hold.

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-6-3 22:51 发表   i think the amount of cash is more important if bank run is on concern. BSC said they have 17B which vaporized in a few days. Now LEH claimed they have 40B, much more than what BSC had, ...

LEH has a much more solid equity portion of bussiness. I don't think their real leverage is 30. it is more like something between 15-30. They will have some difficulties, but i definitely don't think they will die.

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-6-3 22:13 发表 看来是我bias太强了。

Just let you know that I am a short term bear and long term bull. As I sail before, I have my target around 1200+. I might revise it up if the currently initiated sell off doesn't go deep enough.

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-3 23:17 发表 Just let you know that I am a short term bear and long term bull. As I sail before, I have my target around 1200+. I might revise it up if the currently initiated sell off doesn't go deep enough.

 

that's well understood and we are in the same boat. i was trying to understand whether today's movement is simply MM's trick, or driven by market internal dynamics.

 

eric717 ever said that during lunch time, liqudity is thin and MM is more free to play tricks. as today's drop was started around that time, it seems it was started as a trick. however the big volume stood at around 137.50 suggested that market internal dynamics has strong desire to accumulate chips at that level, which stopped the trick's progress abruptly. this is my interpertation, and the core of this interpertation is price / volume relation. i didn't know whether it's a sound interpertation, though.

江南听雨

和发呆兄一样 我发现自己也是有strong bull bias

江南听雨

我只是觉得这次LEH的事情并没有造成市场SENTIMENT的变化，害怕肯定还是有的，但是已经不是非理智性的恐慌，不是泥沙俱下的所有股票都跌的那种

escortid

LEH掐起来了

还在发呆

以下均转自茶香股谈 by DaFo

 

米国嚎派声嘶力竭又哭又骂大闹国会就为OIL?

看了国会OIL问题听证会. 最大的特点就是米国嚎派在声嘶力竭.

比如, SOROS指着GS/MS的鼻子大骂:
OIL市场都是你们两个坏虫搞的.
狗屁基本面决定油价
你们两个坏虫狼卑为奸, 说什么油还到200.
没你们两个混丈操纵. 油也就最多50元.
调查你们公司, 把混球操纵者抓到监狱.
制定规则, 油价立即降低20%.
顺便发展替代能源


比如: 麻洲的代表嚎到
若现在价格, 冬天燃油家用5000元, 没法活了
建议限制OIL投机, 提高MARGIN
建议限制短期投机者买的数量
等等等等

油投机问题, 和熊市一样, 需要政府的干预才能逆转. 米国最大问题就是$乱贬, 政府拿几千甚至万亿$为油打仗, 结果油还从1元到了4元. 善良单纯的老米还在相信基本面供需造成的. 若把一年为油纳税人直接间接花1万亿, 而右还1元涨四元嚎到媒体, 后果........


这极大的影响了$的发展, 给人民带来了极大的生活不方便. 而舆论和财政部掩耳朵盗铃, 说什么是供需矛盾, 是基本面. 弱势$极大的影响了米的CREDIT. 从而米国本身也能成BSC的危险.

这不, 最近hedge fund就开始无理足迹LEH. 借助的就是OIL125->135. 若嚎派不嚎, 若LEH被杀, 那就好看了.

很可惜LEH是杀不了的. 我有长篇分析. 在舆论等一面倒被垄断集团把握, 嚎派在国会大哭大骂真是一景. 而且能产生效果. OIL135很久难破. LEH也最近到底.

米国嚎派声嘶力竭又哭又骂大闹国会就为OIL? 难道就是SOROS为了自己的POSITION? 没有这些嚎派, 这国家可能早完球了.

 

===================

 

最新有关发展:

MCO的SEC调查的事情消息出来, 可能结束了. MCO基本风险解除. 短期做反弹的可以找机会获利. 中长其的MCO还有潜力.

LEH已经被SP把信用降级到A-(注意 毕竟还是A, 这个降级远没, 从A-到BBB影响那么大), WSJ登了最严重的BASH.

LEH自己的短期流动CASH 40B, 已经大于自己的短期拆借30B债务不少(BSC倒的原因只要是这个指标太差). 已经开始卖出一部分LEVEL 3资产. LEH今天开始BUY BACK SHARE. (这一点很重要, 1是反击自己没CASH的谣言. 2是支持股票价格, 防止股票价格太低自己的客户失去信心. )

国会开始对OIL操纵听证. 近期GS/MS操纵能源可能不会太放肆. 这会不会影响GA的收入? 也就是OIL的135高点应该中其是顶了. ?

美元已经两周走强. OIL低和$强, 是解决美国经济问题的正确方向. 反之则是自杀.

预期一下LEH:

LEH随后在ER前多和空的双方都会开始放消息. ER后应该开涨. 因多空交火激烈. 买底的小心多批. 前提是基于我的判断: LEH的对面是一个STUPID的大熊; LEH不会倒掉; LEH会多报LOSE, 比如亏2块多; LEH自己BUY BACK, LEH不大愿意在这么低的情况下raise money. LEH最大的坏消息可能是: 若ER报的LOSE太大>4元, 那么可能会引来SP的进一步信用降级(可能不大但要防). 空头继续发觉他的LEVEL 3中的坏东西, 对他的卖出这些资产不满意.

===========================

 

市场破3月的新低眼下种种"苗头"判断, 还不大可能.

LEH事件很可能下周就会水落石出. 所以, 能不能新低也很快就知道. 不用大家等很久.

我觉得LEH事件结束的时候"很可能"市场见底的时候. 当然大家只是做好准备而我不是在鼓励大家匆忙抄底.

现在市场比较乱而不是实质的基本面有太大变? OIL那边要调查了. GS/MS等OIL多头也要调整策略. 美元也在走强. 这边一堆混球空头靠慌言(袭击东南亚一样)袭击有很大放大的LEH导致的市场恐慌.

觉得现在是OIL, 股市, CURRENCY都面临调整策略的交易方面的混乱. 而不是基本面支持下的整体VALUE下降.

除非出现戏剧性LEH也被杀掉(可能性很小)或被打到比3月的最低点还低, 不然市场未必就一直下去. 特意强调: 现在市场比较乱, 最好旁观.

 

===============================

 

今天, 到现在没看见空头抛出更多的关于LEH的坏消息.

MS/GS眼下也没看见坏消息. 其操纵油市场也没做文章.

目前还是谨慎乐观. 按VALUE抄底的策略不变.

坚信既然那帮空头是靠慌言操作, 市场惩罚他们就在最近.

escortid

LEH的庄太凶悍了

还在发呆

原帖由 escortid 于 2008-6-4 11:15 发表 LEH的庄太凶悍了

 

nod nod, 低开高走，今天是要下重手杀空了。另有消息，LEH开始回购股票，估计也是高走的动力之一。

 

http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/06/04/lehman-on-the-block/

Lehman on the block?

Lehman shares were down as much as 15% in trading Tuesday afternoon before the firm publicly denied it had been forced to borrow from the Federal Reserve. The Journal reports Lehman engineered part of its Tuesday afternoon relief rally by buying back its own shares - an unusual move given the worries about the firm’s financial health and the company’s recent efforts to bring down its leverage ratios. Though the buyback could be taken as a sign of management’s confidence that Lehman can weather the storm, others see it as smacking of desperation. Wednesday’s action may go a ways toward determining whether Lehman is able to stay the course or whether it ends up doing a deal with the likes of Citadel or Blackstone (BX).

还在发呆

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lehman-climbs-7-loomis-sayles/story.aspx?guid=%7B964D7BD8-1F43-4B25-A810-ED2607D4C467%7D&dist=hplatest

Lehman climbs 7% on Loomis Sayles, upgrade reports

LEH 31.83, +1.22, +4.0%) rose as much as 7% in midday trading after Reuters reported that bond fund manager Loomis Sayles has been buying Lehman debt over the past several days and is convinced the bank's credit is solid. "The credit is good at Lehman," Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles and co-manager of the $18 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, told Reuters. "We have no hesitation whatsoever at all in dealing with Lehman." Fuss said he considered Lehman shares to be "dirt cheap" after the bank's stock price fell nearly 18% over the last three trading days, Reuters said. Lehman shares were also up on reports that Merrill Lynch and Co. had upgraded Lehman to a buy after analysts said concerns about the bank's capital have been exagerrated

jsl

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-3 20:25 发表 不觉得，是跌的太猛， 时间上还没到位。明天可能再横盘一天， 时间就差不多了

 

时间是对了，没想到是个大阳棒。

xiaobailong

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-5 16:49 发表 时间是对了，没想到是个大阳棒。

是啊，想到可能会涨，可是没想到今天会涨这么猛啊。

卵蛋

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-6-5 17:00 发表 是啊，想到可能会涨，可是没想到今天会涨这么猛啊。

 

偶有说啊， DOW 要涨到12650左右。。 还没到呢。。

[ 本帖最后由 卵蛋 于 2008-6-5 17:04 编辑 ]

xiaobailong

原帖由 卵蛋 于 2008-6-5 17:02 发表 偶有说啊， DOW 到涨到12650左右。。 还没到呢。。

今天已经涨到12600了，明天再涨50点？你说得12650是收盘呢还是盘中啊？