01/27/2011 白天灌水

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AAII members are:

(as of 1/26/2011)
   Bullish:  42.04%
   Neutral:  23.67%
   Bearish:  34.29%

last week: 50.78 / 20.15 / 29.1

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Jobless Claims
Released on 1/27/2011 8:30:00 AM For wk1/22, 2011  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 404 K 403 K 405 K 375 K to 425 K 454 K
4-week Moving Average - Level  413.0 K   428.75 K


Highlights
The Labor Department is blaming snow storms in the South for a very disappointing and totally unexpected 51,000 rise in initial jobless claims to 454,000 for the January 22 week (prior week revised 1,000 lower to 403,000). But unfortunately the jump also reflects what the Labor Department calls "normal" volatility in the numbers at this time of year, which is the heaviest time for initial claims (Labor Department comments provided by Market News International).

The four-week average jumped 15,750 to 428,750 which is nearly 15,000 higher than a month ago and which suddenly points to trouble for the monthly employment report. Continuing claims also rose, up 94,000 to 3.991 million in data for the January 15 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose one tenth to 3.2 percent. In unadjusted data for the January 8 week, the department reports that 9.41 million people claimed unemployment benefits, down from 9.63 million in the prior week.

Heavy weather may be playing a major negative role in January economic data. Hopefully it will be just a one-time effect that will quickly reverse. Markets are showing limited reaction, at least initially, to today's report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the January 15 week fell an unexpectedly sharp 37,000 to 404,000 from a revised 441,000 the prior week. The latest decline more than offset the prior week's 30,000 boost. With recent weekly volatility, the four-week average likely provides the best insight. The average is down 4,000 to 411,750 and is down more than 14,000 from a month ago.

snowlover

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Durable Goods Orders
Released on 1/27/2011 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2010  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change -1.3 % -0.1 % 1.5 % -3.0 % to 2.8 % -2.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 9.4 % 10.7 %   6.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M 2.4 % 4.5 %   0.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 10.6 % 12.7 %   11.5 %


Highlights
Durables orders are living up to their reputation as one of the most volatile monthly series in the U.S.-and the latest report was disappointing. Durables orders in December unexpectedly dropped 2.5 percent, following a revised 0.1 percent fall the month before. Weakness was primarily in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods were more favorable, advancing 0.5 percent after a 4.5 percent surge in November. By industry, strength was mostly in machinery with others industries generally down but after healthy gains the prior month.

By major industries, transportation fell a monthly 12.8 percent in December after declining 13.1 percent the month before. The latest decline was mainly in nondefense aircraft which plunged a monthly 99.5 percent-again, essentially Boeing orders likely falling due to delays in its Dreamliner delivery dates. Also, within transportation, motor vehicles actually increased 1.7 percent while defense aircraft & parts fell back 10.9 percent.

Outside of transportation, strength was narrowly focused with machinery jumping 10.6 percent (November in parenthesis, up 0.3 percent). Other industries were down but generally after a notable gain the month before. Primary metals fell 4.7 percent (up 13.8 percent); fabricated metals down 1.0 percent (up 2.9 percent); computers & electronics down 1.2 percent (up 6.5 percent); electrical equipment down 0.1 percent (up 8.6 percent); and all others down 1.1 percent (up 0.8) percent.

Business investment in equipment continues to show strength outside of aircraft. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in December rose 1.4 percent after gaining 3.1 percent the prior month. Shipments for this series rose 1.7 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase in November.

Overall, the report should be considered in light of ex-transportation showing the overall trend over two or three months. Essentially, manufacturing is still on an uptrend though one not as robust as believed last month.

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