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发表于 2010-10-1 09:03 AM
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老蛇,你有办法confirm DICK ARMS的这个说法吗?
Yes, this September has been one of the strongest Septembers ever. But we need to be aware that the statistic may not be as encouraging as the press would have us believe.
A number of years ago, I wrote an article for Barron's that looked at monthly change in each month as a barometer of future market action. One particularly strong tendency was for September to be a contrary month. I found that if September is down, there is a high probability that the next 11 months will take the market higher. But a strong September is likely to lead to a down market for the balance of the 12-month period. So this very strong month is not necessarily the encouraging sign we would like o believe. |
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