11/29/2010 大盘回顾 （The low could be in, watch SPX 1200 breakout to confirm）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold both long and short overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/26,12/02 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26, 12/03 – 12/06

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week. *0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Open above BB top then formed a Dark Cloud Cover, bullish short-term. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close? 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead? 11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks. 11/24 Market Recap: MAD right after MDD means rebound then a 2nd leg down. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high. *1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/24 High Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE LOW COULD BE IN, WATCH SPX 1200 BREAKOUT TO CONFIRM

 

可能the low was in了。两个理由：

1. 典型的breakout downtrend line，然后back test the previous low （这个也免强可以看作是我一直唠叨的the 2nd leg down)，下面就看能否breakout SPX 1200 to confirm了。
2. 时间上，pullback 6 trading days，也差不多符合今年so far pullback range from 5 to 8 trading days的time window。

Pattern and time都吻合，因此有可能the low was in了，注意，是有可能哈，明天breakdown below 11/16 lows的话，就当我是FP啦。至于这个是不是广大Elliott Wave analysts说的Wave 5 up，等破了11/05 highs再说吧，下面的图只是给个概念，理论上wave 5可以到1300+，非常非常可观哈。

 

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，这个也支持the low was in的说法，at least for short-term。

 

 

假设，我说假设哈，1200明天breakout了，confirm low was in了，为什么我不sure这是wave 5 up呢？同样也是1-2-3 Trend Change pattern，不能排除这次反弹也是典型的test the previous highs的可能性，因此前面我说，是不是wave 5，要等11/05 highs decisively breakout再说啦。熊熊下面的看点，是put call ratio，如果反弹几天，就很疯狂的话，那么机会大大的，这一轮反弹仅仅是retest the previous high。当然，目前熊熊要做的最好就是等待。

 

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU率先lower low了，这个支持，反弹(if any)可能仅仅是retest the previous high的说法。Refer HERE for more evidences about INDU Leads Market, if interested. 

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

 

The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH

 

See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	11/16 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP	IWM:SPX too high.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	11/16 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		*Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. *Double hollow red bar under MA(50), be careful.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/16 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

tonghu

sofa

trender

ban deng

everest001

c3456

PacificLegend

t-k

liblib123

wave 4应该不会那么快结束，可能现在只是B of 4

greenback

happyface

thanks a lot

vicvic

yaobooyao

已经开始进场做多，当双底做了。止损容易。

jWishbone

thanks

gidar

jy1029

first page

Cobra

wave 4应该不会那么快结束，可能现在只是B of 4
liblib123 发表于 2010-11-29 20:47

    你这还是当5 wave来分析的，可是要是仅仅是retest the previous high的case呢?另外，wave 2大约14 trading days，现在wave 4也来个14 trading days左右，又有什么不可以呢？

q2model

Thanks

navybean

Thanks

greatinter

fu2008

回复 1# Cobra