重磅 ◇ 美国通胀高企！加拿大央行降息无望？媒体预测......
<section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2024年4月29日，加拿大媒体《金融邮报》报道称，由于美国公布的最新经济数据显示，<span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美国经济增长放缓而通胀持续升高，有可能导致加拿大央行降息被无限期推迟。</span></section><p style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br></p><p style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">图自《金融邮报》，2024年4月</p><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">报道显示，美国在2024年一季度GDP总量增长了1.6%，低于彭博社预测的2.5%。相比<span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2023年</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">四季度显著放缓，2023年第四季度年化增长率为3.4%。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">此外，美联储首选的核心通胀指标于3月份上涨了0.3%，同比增长2.8%，导致市场对于美国降息的预期推迟到了2024年12月份，甚至有人预测今年都不会进行降息。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">考虑到加拿大央行加息将息和美联储有高度一致性，加拿大央行降息计划或被迫无限期推迟。<br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">报道称，</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美联储</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">鹰派情绪潜在增强给加拿大央行带来了困扰，此前许多人预计加拿大央行将在六月份降息，而美国经济数据的公布也使得人们开始担心加美利率差距过大可能会损害加元。</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">加元贬值也会使得从美国购买的商品变得更加昂贵，而美国又是加拿大最大的贸易伙伴，这样会导致加拿大央行一直以来希望遏制的通胀重新被拉高。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">但也有乐观的分析师认为美国的数据不会影响加拿大在6月降息，但这位分析师也承认，6月的降息有可能是2024年加拿大央行唯一一次降息。<br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">而金融机构</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">Monex Europe 的</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">经济学家</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">Simon Harvey表示，美国经济数据</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">不会真正改变加拿大央行6月份降息的前景，鉴于美国经济的韧性和美国通胀尚</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">未影响到加拿大，加拿大央行仍有可能降息。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">不过黄三水注意到，这位乐观的经济学家也只是说加拿大央行在6月有可能降息，却也不敢完全肯定。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">从加拿大国内数据来看，加拿大央行的展望仍然很清晰，但是如果美联储要到12月份降息甚至今年都不降息的话，加拿大央行6月份之后的情况将变得更加复杂。</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span><br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">预计6月份降息后，加拿大央行的官员可能会在7月份的议息会议上不做变动，来“向市场传递更为谨慎的信息”。<br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">另有消息人士头哭，加拿大央行审议摘要的会议纪要显示，央行可能会降息一次，然后暂停，以确保通胀仍然能够可靠地放缓。</section><p style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br></p><p style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); box-sizing: border-box !important;">图</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); box-sizing: border-box !important;">自《金融邮报》，2024年4月</span></p><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">因为通胀持续放缓，预计欧洲央行将在6月6日的会议上开始降息。<br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">欧洲央行行长Christine Lagarde表示，欧洲央行以欧洲的数据为基础决策而不是依赖美联储。但市场警告说，这完全是一厢情愿。</section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">事实上，欧洲央行的态度或许是加拿大央行关注的一个点，因为加拿大央行很难鼓足勇气于美联储背道而驰。<br style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">Desjardins Group董事总经理兼宏观策略主管Royce Mendes认为，<span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">需要关注的关键变量是货币，如果加元贬值太多，则表明货币政策分歧已经达到了极限。</span><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">而彭博社数据最新修改的预测显示，2024年加拿大央行将进行两次降息。这个观点在乐观和悲观之间，如果真的只降息两次，那么加拿大房价承受的压力将是预期之外的。</span></section><section style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万一只降息一次，那将出乎所有地产分析师的预料，加拿大房价走势将变得更难预测。</span></section>
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